“双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统发展前景

Prospect of China’s energy and power system under dual carbon goals

习近平主席于2020年9月代表中国宣布应对气候变化的“双碳”目标,2021年3月部署了“构建清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系”“构建新型电力系统”的“十四五”重点工作任务^([1]),并相继出台了多项相关政策要求^([2~4]),明确了我国能源电力转型的实施路径.2022年10月,中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会报告进一步提出“积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和.”

Based on the strategic goals of China’s energy transformation,this paper performs a scenario analysis of China’s energy and power system in 2020–2060,with a particular focus on the composition of the primary energy consumption and power supply.A preliminary analysis of the development scenario of China’s energy and power system has revealed that the installed wind and solar power capacity in China will continuously rise from 2020 to 2060,exceeding 50%of the total by 2035,becoming the main installed capacity,and accounting for over 70%by 2050.The installed capacity of nonfossil energy power generation has gradually increased with the rapid development of wind and solar power generation,reaching over 85%by 2050 and over 90%by 2060.Furthermore,the installed capacity of coal-fired power will decline after 2030,with the decline rate slowing down after 2050.Approximately 300 million kW of coal-fired power plants are proposed to be retained from 2055 to 2060,providing important support for a safe and stable power system operation.In terms of power generation,the share of nonfossil energy power generally shows a continuous upward trend of up to more than 50%between 2030 and 2035.Moreover,between 2045 and 2050,the annual wind and solar power generation will account for over 50%of the total generation,becoming the main electricity source.The annual power generation of coal-fired power has been showing a downward trend since 2030 and may fall below 1 trillion kWh after 2050.The power system exhibits a substantially high proportion of new energy characteristics.China’s new energy power system is proposed to have the following six features:(1)High proportion of renewable energy;(2)high proportion of power electronic equipment;(3)multienergy complementary integrated energy;(4)cyberphysical and smart energy;(5)clean,efficient,and low-/zero-carbon;and(6)highly resilient and intrinsically safe and reliable.The revolution trends of five core indicators,including the share of nonfossil energy in primary energy consumption,total carbon dioxide emissions of the energy and power system,and the share of electric energy in final energy consumption,are emphatically analyzed.From 2050 to 2060,the power system will still need some coal-and gasfired power plants to provide flexibility and help ensure a safe power supply under extreme conditions.The simultaneous adoption of zero-and negative-carbon technologies,such as carbon capture,usage,storage,and biomass,will help achieve net zero CO2 emissions.With the continuous electrification efforts,the share of electricity in the final energy consumption of China will reach approximately 50%by 2040 and over 70%by 2060.Furthermore,despite the decrease in the total primary energy consumption after 2030,effective energy consumption will retain steady progress due to the rapid improvement of energy efficiency.The total electricity production efficiency will increase by approximately 15%from 2030 to 2050 due to the rapid renewable deployment in the power sector.To address the adjustment and power supply problems of new power systems with high renewable penetration,special attention should be paid to 10 key technologies,including renewable energy generation and comprehensive utilization,new energy storage,theory and operational control of new power systems,etc.The concept and the basic framework of the integrated energy production unit(IEPU)are proposed as an effective measure of facilitating the transformation of coal power units.The IEPU can realize a large-scale time–space migration of energy with a strong positive and negative twoway flexible adjustment ability and basically unrestricted duration time.The efficient usage of the IEPU is expected to improve system flexibility and resiliency.The economy and related technological innovation of the IEPU still need further study.