基于手机信令数据特征的春节乡村配变负荷研究

Research on Rural Distribution Transformer Load During Spring Festival Based on the Characteristics of Mobile Signaling Data

大量外出务工人员在春节集中返乡,导致乡村用电负荷突增及配变频繁过载运行,严重时造成设备停运或烧毁。随着乡村大量的基建建设,配变布点和人口分布发生变化,传统乡村配变负荷模型已无法适用,导致供电企业对此类型配变预控不足,引发安全风险。为此,基于手机信令和乡村配变数据,研究春节返乡人口分布及负荷增长特征,建立适应春节乡村配变的短期负荷预测模型,并验证其可行性,以期提高供电企业对配变安全运行的管控能力。

A study on the load of rural distribution transformers dur ing the Spring Festival based on the characteristics of mobile phone signaling data.Due to a large number of migrant workers returning home during the Spring Festival,the rural electricity load suddenly increases and the distribution transformers frequently overload,leading to equipment shutdown or burning in severe cases.With a large amount of infrastructure construction in rural areas,the distribution points and population distribution of distribution transformers have changed,and traditional rural distribution transformer load models are no longer applicable,leading to insufficient pre control of this type of distribution transformer by power supply enterprises and causing safety risks.To this end,based on mobile signaling and rural distribution transformer data,this study investigates the distribution of returning population and load growth characteristics during the Spring Festival,establishes a short-term load forecasting model that adapts to the Spring Festival rural distribution transformer,and verifies its feasibility,in order to improve the control ability of power supply enterprises for the safe operation of distribution transformers.