我国农田水利建设对粮食生产的减灾增量效果及作用机制研究

Disaster Reduction and Growth Effects and Machanism of Farmland Water Conservancy Construction on Food Production in China

农田水利建设对增强农业抗灾能力和促进粮食增产有着不可替代的作用。该文利用2000—2021年我国31个省际面板数据,运用固定效应模型实证检验农田水利建设对粮食产量的减灾机制。结果表明:农田水利建设通过减少水旱灾害受灾面积的路径来刺激粮食生产,有效灌溉面积和除涝面积每增加1%,粮食受灾面积将分别减少31.3%和7.4%,而受灾面积的减少将保障粮食生产,从而促使农田水利建设对粮食增产23.8%和2.4%。在异质性方面,华北地区农田水利建设对粮食生产的防灾减灾效果最优。据此,建议尽快完成高标准农田建设,落实防灾减灾要求,保障粮食持续稳定供给,维护我国粮食安全。

Farmland water conservancy construction has an irreplaceable role in enhancing agricultural disaster resilience and promoting increased grain production.By utilizing 31 inter-provincial panel data in China from 2000 to 2021,the disaster mitigation mechanism of farmland water conservancy construction on grain production is empirically tested by using a fixed-effects model.The results show that farmland water conservancy construction stimulates grain production through the path of reducing the area affected by floods and droughts,and for every 1%increase in the effective irrigated area and flood-removing area,the grain-affected area will be reduced by 31.3%and 7.4%,respectively,and the reduction in the affected area will safeguard the grain production,which will lead to the increase in grain production by 23.8%and 2.4%by farmland water conservancy construction.In terms of heterogeneity,the effect of farmland water conservancy construction on grain production in North China is optimal in terms of disaster prevention and mitigation.Accordingly,it is recommended that the construction of high-standard farmland be completed as soon as possible to implement the requirements for disaster prevention and mitigation,to ensure a sustained and stable supply of grain,and to maintain food security in China.