基于CMIP6模式数据的京津冀山区未来极端降水频率的变化

Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Mountainous Regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on CMIP6 Data

基于偏差校正后的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中多个全球气候模式数据,选取三种气候变化情景下3 h降水数据,探究京津冀山区未来极端降水频率值及其相对变化速率的时空分布规律。结果显示:校正后的模式模拟降水与观测数据差异较小,能很好地模拟出未来降水的时空分布变化。相对于历史,多个模式未来不同情景下降水频率值的增速明显,极端降水增多,且超半数模式各情景的增长率处于0%~15%。其中,I区的降水频率值最高,可达162.53 mm,增长率最大约为37%,Ⅱ区和Ⅳ区的降水频率值接近,Ⅲ区的降水频率变化缓慢。空间上,研究区西部、西南部及东北部等地区的增长率较大。

Based on the data of multiple global climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)after bias correction,3h precipitation data under three climate change scenarios are selected to explore the space-time distribution of the frequency value of extreme precipitation and its relative change rate in the future.The results show that:The corrected model had little difference between simulated precipitation and observed data,and could well simulate the space-time distribution changes of future precipitation.Compared with the history,the frequency of water decline in different scenarios of multiple models increases significantly in the future,and extreme precipitation increases,and the growth rate of scenarios in more than half of the models is 0%-15%.The precipitation frequency in zone I is the highest,up to 162.53mm,and the growth rate is about 37%at the most.The precipitation frequencies in ZoneⅡand ZoneⅣare close to each other,while the precipitation frequency in ZoneⅢchanges slowly.Spatially,the growth rate of the western,southwestern and northeastern regions of the study area is relatively large.