基于概率分析的铁路安全风险传递网络模型研究

Research on Railway Safety Risk Transfer Network Model Based on Probability Analysis

传统的风险评价大多是在定性分析的基础上展开的,给风险评价带来了一定的局限性。为深化风险评价水平,拓展风险定量评价方法,提出一种基于概率分析的铁路安全风险传递网络模型。首先,面向铁路局集团公司层面,识别出35项安全风险;然后,通过关联关系分析明确风险间的传递关系,并依托风险传递关系构建安全风险传递网络模型;之后,基于贝叶斯网络对风险传递网络进行传递概率分析;最后,选取异物侵限类风险事件作为案例对模型进行应用验证。结果表明:模型基于铁路运营历史数据,对风险传递网络进行定量分析,能识别出安全风险传递网络中的关键安全风险和风险传递关键路径。模型为有效利用铁路安全相关数据,开展定量的风险评价提供基础。

The traditional risk assessment is mostly carried out on the basis of qualitative analysis,which brings certain limitations to the risk assessment.In order to deepen the level of risk assessment and expand the quantitative risk assessment method,a railway safety risk transfer network model based on probability analysis was proposed.Firstly,35 safety risks were identified in railway group companies.Then,the transfer relationship between risks was clarified through correlation analysis,and the safety risk transfer network model was built based on the risk transfer relationship.Then,the transfer probability analysis of the risk transfer network was carried out based on the Bayesian network.Finally,the risk event of foreign body intrusion was selected as a case to verify the application of the model.The results show that the model can identify the critical safety risks and the critical path of the risk transfer in the safety risk transfer network by quantitative analysis of the risk transfer network based on historical data of railway operation.The model can provide a basis for the effective use of railway safety data and quantitative risk assessment.