陕西省碳排放时空格局演变及其影响因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Shaanxi Province

基于DMSP/OLS和NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据,运用探索性空间分析、冷热点分析和标准差椭圆分析等方法,估算了2000~2020年陕西省碳排放量,探讨了陕西省碳排放的时空演化特征,并构建了空间杜宾面板模型分析其影响因素.结果表明:(1)2000~2020年陕西省碳排放总量呈现持续增长趋势;碳排放分布具有显著的地域差异规律,呈现“陕北>关中>陕南”的分布态势.(2)碳排放重心向陕西东北方向移动,说明陕西东部地区和北部地区对全省碳排放量的影响作用加强;碳排放具有显著的空间正自相关性,即表现为集聚效应;碳排放的冷热点转化较为明显,热点在陕北地区扩张,冷点逐渐消失.(3)陕西省碳排放的直接正向影响因素有城镇化率、人口数量、单位GDP能耗、产业结构和经济增长,其中城镇化快速发展和人口规模扩大是陕西省碳排放持续增长的主要推动力.

Based on DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data,the carbon emissions from 2000a to 2020a in Shaanxi Province were estimated in this study.Meanwhile,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions were analyzed by the exploratory spatial analysis,hot and cold spot analysis,and the standard deviation ellipse analysis.The spatial Durbin panel model was also established to identify the influencing factors.The results indicated that:(1)The total carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province presented a continuous upward trend from 2000a to 2020a.It also exhibited distinct spatial and temporal heterogeneity with the characteristics of"Northern Shaanxi>Central Shaanxi>Southern Shaanxi"during the study period.(2)The distribution center of carbon emission had gradually moved to the northeast,which illustrated the carbon emissions in the northeast of the research area had increased more significantly than those in other regions.Carbon emission performed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation(i.e.,the agglomeration effect),and the transformations from hot spots to cold spots were also prominent.The hot spots expanded in northern Shaanxi,and the cold spots disappeared gradually.(3)Urbanization rate,population size,energy consumption per unit GDP,industrial structure and economic growth were all positively correlated with the carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province.The rapid development of urbanization and the expansion of population were the main driving forces for the carbon emission growth in Shaanxi Province.