基于KZ滤波分析气象对珠三角臭氧趋势的影响

Analysis of meteorological effects on the trend of ozone in the Pearl River Delta using the KZ filtering method

基于2015~2021年珠三角臭氧(O_(3))监测数据以及再分析的气象资料,利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波和逐步多元线性回归方法分析O_(3)长期趋势和气象因素之间的关系,量化气象和非气象对珠三角O_(3)日最大8h平均浓度(MDA8O_(3))长期趋势的贡献.结果表明:2015~2021年珠三角MDA8O_(3)增长明显,夏季和秋季O_(3)污染尤为严重.KZ滤波分离出的MDA8O_(3)短期、季节和长期3个分量分别占原始序列方差的60.84%、24.96%和4.33%,各分量之间相互独立,3个分量均与太阳辐射、温度和边界层高度呈正相关,与云量、相对湿度、风速和850hPa经向风呈负相关.此外,气象和非气象影响能分别解释大约64.3%(2.77μg/(m^(3)·a))和35.7%(1.53μg/(m^(3)·a))的MDA8O_(3)长期趋势的增长率(4.29μg/(m^(3)·a)).

Based on the ozone(O_(3))monitoring data and reanalysis meteorological data in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)from 2015 to 2021,the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)filter and stepwise multiple linear regression method were used to analyze the relationship between the long-term trend of O_(3) and meteorological factors.This study quantified the contribution of meteorological and non-meteorological factors to the long-term trend of the maximum daily 8-hour average O_(3) concentration(MDA8O_(3))in the PRD.The results indicated a significant increase in MDA8O_(3) in the PRD from 2015 to 2021,with particularly severe O_(3) pollution in the summer and autumn.The KZ fitering method separated MDA8O_(3) into three components:short-term,seasonal and long-term,accounting for 60.84%,24.96% and 4.33% of the variance of the original sequence,respectively.These components were found to be independent of each other.The three components of MDA8O_(3) are positively correlated with solar radiation,temperature and boundary layer height,and negatively correlated with cloud cover,relative humidity,wind speed and 850hPa meridional wind.Furthermore,meteorological and non-meteorological influences were found to explain approximately 64.3%(2.77μg/(m^(3)a))and 35.7%(1.53μg/(m^(3)a))of the long-term trend’s growth rate(4.29μg/(m^(3)a))of MDA8O_(3),respectively.