农业保险保障水平是否会影响粮食安全?

Will agricultural insurance security level affect food security?

基于山东省、辽宁省、江西省和四川省四省1 599份中国农村普惠金融调查数据,采用OLS模型、IV模型和中介效应模型,实证分析农业保险保障水平对粮食产量的影响效应与作用机制。结果表明:农业保险保障水平显著正向影响玉米、小麦、稻谷三大主粮的产量,提高农业保险保障水平有利于维护粮食安全;种粮面积和农业生产投入在农业保险保障水平影响粮食产量的过程中具有中介效应,提高农业保险保障水平会使农户扩大种粮面积、增加农业生产投入实现粮食产量;农业保险保障水平对不同经营规模农户粮食产量的影响存在异质性,提高农业保险保障水平对保障粮食安全的效应随经营规模的扩大而增加。据此,建议聚焦农业保险政策目标,完善农业保险产品体系,确定合理的农业保险保障水平。

Based on the survey data of 1599 rural financial inclusion surveys in Shandong,Liaoning,Jiangxi,and Sichuan of China,the OLS model,IV model and mediation effect model were used to empirically analyze the influence and mechanism of agricultural insurance security level on grain output.The results showed that the level of agricultural insurance security had a significant positive impact on the yield of the three major staple grains,maize,wheat and rice,and improving the level of agricultural insurance security was conducive to maintaining food security.The area of grain planted and the input of agricultural production had a mediating effect,and increasing the level of agricultural insurance security would make farmers expand the area of grain planted and improve the input of agricultural production to achieve an increase in food production.The impact of the level of agricultural insurance security on the food production of farmers with different business scales was heterogeneous,and the effect of increasing the level of agricultural insurance security on food security increased with the expansion of business scale.Therefore,it is suggested that we should focus on the policy objective of agricultural insurance,perfect the product system of agricultural insurance and determine the reasonable level of agricultural insurance.