RCEP对中国机电产品产出及贸易的影响--基于动态递归GTAP的模拟分析

The Impact of RCEP on the Output and Trade of Mechanical and Electrical Products in China--Simulation Analysis Based on Dynamic Recursive GTAP

RCEP的实施将对中国机电产品的产出及贸易产生重要影响。采用RRCA和TCI指数分析了中国与RCEP成员国机电产品的贸易竞争与互补关系,运用动态递归GTAP模拟了RCEP对中国机电产品产出及贸易的影响。研究发现:近20年来,中国对各成员国机电产品进出口额增长较快,且对各国机电产品的贸易互补性较强。降低关税与技术性贸易壁垒、提升互联互通水平、增加投资及劳动力等措施都将促进中国机电产品产出及贸易增长,其中对日本、韩国、东盟的进出口增加额较大。中国企业要充分利用RCEP关税减让表,扩大机电产品出口,加强与各成员国的机电产业合作,积极面对贸易竞争加剧带来的挑战。

The implementation of RCEP will have an important impact on the output and trade of China’s mechanical and electrical products.This paper uses RRCA and TCI index to analyze the trade competition and complementarity between mechanical and electrical products between China and RCEP member countries,and uses dynamic recursive GTAP to simulate the impact of RCEP on the output and trade of mechanical and electrical products in China.It is found that in the past two decades,China’s import and export volume of mechanical and electrical products to member countries has grown rapidly,and the trade of mechanical and electrical products of various countries is highly complementary.Measures such as reducing tariffs and technical barriers to trade,improving connectivity,and increasing investment and labor will all promote the growth of China’s output and trade in mechanical and electrical products,of which the added value of imports and exports to Japan,South Korea and ASEAN is large.Chinese enterprises should make full use of the RCEP tariff reduction schedule,expand the export of mechanical and electrical products,strengthen cooperation with the mechanical and electrical industry of member countries,and actively address the challenges brought by the intensification of trade competition.