“中国碗要装中国粮”可行性与实践路径研究

Keeping the People’s Rice Bowl Filled with Domestically Grown Grain:Feasibility and Practical Path

构建系统动力学模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,动态测度了“中国碗要装中国粮”的可行性。研究结果表明:未来我国口粮数量总体安全,粮食结构性供给风险较大,饲料粮短缺较为严重;我国水产品、蛋类和奶类等间接用粮消费潜力较大,猪肉供需关系紧张,国产植物油供能不足;我国居民的脂肪摄入量严重超标,仍需大量进口。据此,应严格守好耕地保护红线,提高耕地质量;充分发挥政策引导作用,调动农民种粮的积极性;推动农业科技进步,提升粮食稳产保供能力;改善我国居民膳食结构,改进牲畜饲料配比,以降低过旺的饲料粮和植物油需求。

Utilizing a System Dynamics model and GM(1,1)grey model,this study conducted a dynamic assessment of the feasibility of“Chinese bowls to befilled with Chinese grain”.Thefindings of this analysis yield the following insights:China’s overall food security in the future is projected to be robust,but there exists a substantial risk associated with the structural supply of food,specifically with a pronounced shortfall in the availability of animal feed grains;China exhibits significant potential for increased consumption of aquatic products,eggs,and dairy,but tension and imbalance in the supply and demand for pork,and a shortage in domestic vegetable oil supply.Besides,the fat intake of Chinese residents significantly exceeds the standard,and a large import of fat is still needed.To address these challenges,strict safeguards for arable land security should be implemented.Farmers’enthusiasm for grain production should be mobilized by giving full play to the guiding role of policies,and breakthroughs in agricultural technology should be promoted to enhance food production stability and supply capacity.Simultaneously,efforts should be made to improve the dietary structure of Chinese residents,and livestock feed ratios,in order to reduce excessive demand for feed grains and vegetable oil.