基于定额法和蒙特卡洛模拟的建设项目赶工费用研究

Research on Rush-Work Costs Based on Quota Method and Monte Carlo Simulation

建设项目施工过程中为了实现工期目标而采取赶工措施的现象普遍存在,合同双方在赶工措施方案编制及审批过程中对赶工费用的确定往往存在争议。本文提出基于定额法和蒙特卡洛模拟的建设项目赶工费用的计算方法,即:通过已知工程量及定额确定赶工施工过程所需的人工工日数和机械台班数,通过蒙特卡洛模拟合理确定施工降效系数,得出赶工所需增加的人工工日、机械台班数及人工、机械数量,在此基础上,利用合同工程量清单已确定的人工单价和机械台班费计算出赶工费用,并以浙江某水库工程为例进行赶工费用测算,希望为建设项目确定赶工费用提供参考。

The phenomenon of adopting rush measures to achieve the construction period goals during the construction process of construction projects is common,and there is often controversy between the parties to the contract regarding the determination of rush-work costs in the preparation and approval process of rush measures.This article proposes a method for determining the required number of labor days and mechanical shifts in the construction process through known engineering quantities and quotas,and determining the construction efficiency reduction coefficient through Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the additional labor days,mechanical shifts,and labor and mechanical quantities required for expediting.The method of calculating the rush-work cost is based on the labor unit price and mechanical shift cost determined in the contract engineering quantity list.Finally,takes a certain reservoir project in Zhejiang as an example for application.The calculation of rush-work costs can provide reference for determining rush-work costs for similar projects.