新发展格局下中国制造业合理占比的理论探讨

Dual Circulation and the Rational Proportion of China s Manufacturing Industry

制造业是国民经济命脉所系。近年来,我国制造业增加值占GDP比重呈较大幅度下降趋势,“保持制造业比重基本稳定”成为未来产业发展政策的重要指导思想。然而关于制造业的合理占比尚未有一致的看法及统一的测算标准。应用计量统计方法的测算结果显示:在新发展格局下,为保障内需,我国制造业占比应长期维持不低于26.6%,这是制造业占比的底线值;为满足就业及国际市场需求,需增加制造业占比3.7个百分点,那么满足国内国际双循环,应保持我国制造业占比不低于30.3%。目前我国制造业占比已逼近临界值,应采取符合市场需求及经济发展规律的产业政策,以维持制造业合理占比的稳定。

The manufacturing industry is the lifeline of the national economy.In recent years,the proportion of China s manufacturing industry in the national economy has shown a significant downward trend,and“maintaining a basically stable proportion of the manufacturing industry”has become an important guiding ideology for future industrial development policies.However,there is no consensus or unified calculation standard on the“reasonable proportion”of the manufacturing industry.The calculation results using econometric statistical methods show that under the new development pattern,in order to ensure domestic demand,the proportion of added value in China s manufacturing industry should be maintained for a long time at no less than 26.6%,which is the bottom line value of the proportion of manufacturing industry;To meet employment and international market demand,it is necessary to increase the proportion of manufacturing by 3.7 percentage points;So,to meet the dual cycle of domestic and international development,the proportion of added value in China s manufacturing industry should be maintained at no less than 30.3%.At present,the proportion of manufacturing industry in China has approached the critical value,and industrial policies that comply with market demand and economic development laws should be adopted to maintain the stability of the reasonable proportion of manufacturing industry.