我国新型城镇化发展质量统计评价研究

Statistical Evaluation Study on Development Quality Levels of China’s New Urbanization

推进以人为核心的新型城镇化是为人民群众创造美好生活的重要路径。本文采用多种统计分析方法测算并探究2010—2021年我国30个省级地区新型城镇化发展质量综合水平的阶段性演化特征。研究表明,考察期内,我国新型城镇化发展质量水平整体上提升速度较快,但多数省份的发展质量水平不高,智慧和创新正在成为引领我国新型城镇化高质量发展的重要驱动力,而人文和宜居方面建设薄弱则可能会形成短板。分布动态演进方面,东部地区展现出显著的主力驱动型趋势,中部和西部地区呈现出明显的均衡提升型趋势,而东北地区表现出鲜明的双峰并行型趋势。空间形态方面,我国新型城镇化发展质量水平形成了俱乐部收敛的空间形态特征,其主要原因是各地区新型城镇化在短期发展过程中具有路径依赖,而本地与邻域地区间的“邻高提升,邻低抑制”效应则强化了该种空间形态。本研究为我国新型城镇化发展成效的阶段性统计监测和持续性发展研究提供启示。

This paper uses a series of statistical analysis methods to measure and explore the stage evolution characteristics of the comprehensive level of development quality of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021.Results shows that the overall development quality level of China’s new urbanization has improved rapidly during the period under investigation.However,the development quality levels of most provinces are not high.Wisdom and innovation constructions are becoming important driving forces for the high-quality development of China’s new urbanization,while the weaknesses of humanity and livability construction may form short-boards.For the dynamic evolution,the eastern region shows a remarkable dominant driver evolution trend,the central and western regions present clearly balanced promotion evolution trends,while the northeastern region shows a distinct two-peak parallel evolution trend.In terms of the spatial pattern,the development quality level of China’s new urbanization has formed a club convergence spatial pattern feature.Reasons are that each region is path-dependent in the process of new urbanization development,and the effects of“high neighbor regions promoting local upgrading and low neighbor regions inhibiting local upgrading”consolidate this kind of spatial pattern.Our research provides inspirations for the statistical monitoring of China’s new urbanization development quality and the research on sustainable urbanization development.