集成系统动力学和清单算法的能源结构调整对碳排放影响研究--以四川省为例

Research on the impact of energy structure adjustment on carbon emissions based on system dynamics and inventory accounting method:a case study of Sichuan Province

能源消费结构变革是中国实现“双碳”目标的必由之路。利用清单算法对四川省7大部门15种能源消费的碳排放特征开展分析以明确关键排放源,基于系统动力学动态仿真优势搭建预测模型,结合自然演变规律和政策规划目标科学研判四川省“十四五”时期能源消费碳排放轨迹,并兼具省域全局和关键部门双重视角探讨能源消费结构调整的低碳路径。结果表明:(1)工业是能源消费碳排放的核心部门,交通运输业、居民生活的碳贡献也不容忽视。(2)四川省“以煤为主、油气相辅”的消费结构决定了煤品碳排放主导地位,各部门差异化运行机制导致能源消费碳排放结构的异质性特征。(3)从省域全局看,政府低碳管控的“有形之手”能够显著控制碳排放水平,但实施力度不足仍将造成较高水平历史累积,在长时间跨度内影响低碳转型进程。(4)从关键部门看,工业能源消费结构调整侧重点为原煤消费减量和整体节能降碳改造;交通运输业侧重点为运输工具装备低碳转型和清洁能源利用水平提升;居民生活侧重点为绿色出行等低碳生活方式普及。

By combining IPCC inventory guideline and provincial greenhouse gas inventory preparation guideline,the inventory accounting method for carbon emissions from energy consumption in Sichuan Province was constructed.Based on the heterogeneity perspective of energy structure and consumption sectors,the carbon emission characteristics of 15 types of energy consumption in 7 major departments in Sichuan Province were analyzed,and key carbon emission sources were identified.The prediction model was constructed based on the dynamic simulation advantages of system dynamics.Combining the natural evolution laws and policy planning objectives,future development scenarios were scientifically designed.On this basis,the carbon emission trajectory of energy consumption in Sichuan Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period.Finally,from the perspective of both the whole province and the key sectors,the effective paths of energy consumption structure adjustment in Sichuan Province under the“dual carbon”goal were proposed.The results show that:(1)Industry is the core sector of energy consumption carbon emissions,and the carbon contribution of the transportation industry and residents life can not be ignored.(2)The consumption structure of Sichuan Province,which is dominated by coal and supplemented by oil and gas,determines the leading position of carbon emissions of coal products.The differentiated operation mechanism of various departments leads to the heterogeneity of the carbon emission structure of energy consumption.(3)From a provincial perspective,the“visible hand”of the government s low-carbon control can significantly control the level of carbon emissions.However,insufficient implementation would still result in a high level of historical cumulative value,which would affect the process of low-carbon energy transformation over a long period.(4)From the perspective of key sectors,the focus of industrial energy consumption structure adjustment is the reduction of raw coal consumption and the overall energy-saving and low-carbon transformation;the focus of the transportation industry is the low-carbon transformation of transportation tools and equipment and the improvement of clean energy utilization;the focus of residents life is the popularization of low-carbon lifestyles such as green travel.