基于统计检验的漏电断路器寿命预测方法研究

Research on Life Prediction Method of Earth Leakage Circuit Breaker Based on Statistical Test

漏电断路器是电力系统中重要的终端保护器,为了避免其超龄服役,保障用电人员的生命财产安全,需要对其寿命预测方法进行研究。提出了一套基于统计检验的寿命预测方法,该方法将统计学理论和Arrhenius模型相结合,通过正态性检验和相关性检验解决了Arrhenius模型的适用性问题,通过方差齐性检验解决了加速老化试验的老化机理问题,通过异方差检验、残差正态性检验及残差独立性检验解决了拟合模型的质量问题,进一步提高了预测模型的准确性。使用该方法对电子式漏电断路器进行寿命预测,预测结果同厂家提供的参考寿命相近,表明该方法能够有效地解决寿命预测过程存在的问题,同时对其他同类产品的寿命预测也具有一定的参考价值。

In terms of leakage circuit breaker,it is a key terminal protector in power system.To avoid its excessive usage as well as ensure the safety of life and property of power users,it needs to carry out the research on its life prediction method.A set of life prediction method based on statistical test is proposed.This method makes the combination of statistical theory with Arrhenius model,which solves the applicability of Arrhenius model through normality test and correlation test.At the same time,the aging mechanism of accelerated aging test is solved through variance homogeneity test.In addition,the quality problem of the fitting model is solved and the accuracy of the prediction model is further improved by heteroscedasticity test,residual normality test and residual independence test.The proposed method is applied to make the life prediction of electronic leakage circuit breaker.The prediction results are close to the reference life provided by the manufacturer,which indicates that the proposed method can solve the problems existing in the life prediction process in an effective way.At the same time,a certain reference value of the proposed method can be provided for the life prediction of other similar products.