“一带一路”倡议下企业海外并购宏观风险预警实证研究——以某化工企业为例

An Empirical Study on the Macro-risk Warning of Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions of Enterprises in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative--Taking a Chemical Enterprise in China as an Example

在“一带一路”倡议背景下,以中国某化工企业为例,分析并购过程中存在的政治、经济和整合等风险,提出建立企业海外并购宏观风险预警指标体系和多级模糊评价企业海外并购风险预警模型。结果表明:企业海外并购宏观风险预警指标效度均高于0.95;预警模型显示化工企业海外并购计划宏观风险中的政治风险和法律风险均为正常状态,整合和经济风险均为亚风险状态,可有效预警企业海外并购宏观风险。

Taking a chemical enterprise in China as an example,the present study analyzes the ways and problems of overseas mergers and acquisitions(M&A)of enterprises in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.Based on the analysis of the political,economic and integration risks,an indicator system of the macro-risk warning and a multi-level fuzzy evaluation early warning model of overseas M&A of enterprises are established.The results show that the validity of the macro-risk early warning indicators selected by this method is higher than 0.95,the political and legal risks in the macro risks of overseas M&A plans of chemical enterprises are in the normal state,and the integration and economic risks are in the state of sub-risk,which can effectively warn against macro risks in overseas M&A of enterprises.