城市路内违章停车时空特征及影响因素作用模型

Spatio-temporal Characterization of Urban On-street Illegal Parking and Modeling of Role Influencing Factors

为揭示城市路内违章停车的时空模式及影响机理,结合持续两个月共10396条电子警察违停抓拍数据,从土地利用、停车供给与道路设计这3个维度选取16个影响因素进行分析。利用标准椭圆方法、层次聚类法及皮尔逊相关性检验等方法,分析路内违停时空特征并进行影响因素筛选,进一步根据因变量特征构建贝叶斯分位数回归模型,解析早晚高峰违停数量与影响因素的关系。研究结果表明:从违停数量的时间特征来看,工作日违停数量明显高于周末违停数量,且主要集中在周中,工作日违停数量按小时聚类结果显示,违停数量分为3个时间模式,分别为早晚高峰时间段(8:00-10:00和17:00-19:00)、早晚高峰汇聚时间段(10:00-11:00和15:00-17:00)与其他时间段;从违停数量的空间特征来看,工作日违停数量的整体空间分布主要集中在商业和居住密度较高的区域,其在一天内的空间变化趋势呈现“扩撒-稳定-收缩”的态势;分位数回归结果显示,土地使用、停车供给及道路设计这3个维度因素对路内违停存在非线性影响与阈值效应,且早晚高峰违停产生机制具有差异,路内违停治理需要考虑时空特征进行差异化治理。

To reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and influence mechanisms of on-street illegal parking in cities,a total of 10396 electronic police parking violation capture data for two months were combined,and 16 influencing factors were selected from the three dimensions of land use,parking supply and road design.Standard ellipse method,hierarchical clustering method and Pearson correlation test are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of on-street parking violations and screen the influencing factors,and a Bayesian quantile regression model is further constructed based on the characteristics of the dependent variable to analyze the relationship between the number of parking violations and the influencing factors in the morning and evening peaks.The results of the study show that:(1)From the perspective of the temporal characteristics of the number of parking violations,the number of parking violations on weekdays is significantly higher than that on weekends,and is mainly concentrated in the middle of the week.The results of the hourly clustering of the number of weekday parking violations show that the number of parking violations is divided into three time patterns,which are the morning and evening peak time periods(8:00-10:00 and 17:00-19:00),as well as morning and evening peak convergence time periods(10:00-11:00 and 15:00-17:00),and other time periods.(2)In terms of the spatial characteristics of the number of violations,the overall spatial distribution of the number of weekday violations is mainly concentrated in the middle of the week,and the number of weekend violations is mainly concentrated in the middle of the week.The overall spatial distribution of the number of parking violations on weekdays is mainly concentrated in areas with high commercial and residential densities.The spatial change trend of the number of parking violations in a day shows the trend of"expanding-stabilising-contracting".(3)The quantile regression results show that the three dimensions of land use,parking supply,and road design have a non-linear impact and a threshold effect on on-street parking violations.There is a difference in the mechanism between the morning and evening peak parking violation.The management of parking violation needs to take into account the spatial and temporal characteristics of the differentiated management.