战略情报分析的替代分析方法——基于古巴导弹危机的再考察

Alternative Analysis Techniques for Strategic Intelligence Analysis:Based on the Review of the Cuban Missile Crisis

[研究目的]分析古巴导弹危机中谢尔曼·肯特的情报失误,对既有的“思维误区论”进行进一步探究和补充,为战略情报分析中应注意的问题和可采取的方法提供借鉴参考。[研究方法]考察肯特对思维误区的认识、倡导的情报分析方法和在古巴导弹危机中分析失误历程,阐释替代分析的基本内涵、充分必要、方法路径和环境要求,重构古巴导弹危机情报分析过程,形成思维、理念和实践对比,从而发现肯特情报失误的主要原因,引导得出结论。[研究结论]肯特对思维误区有所警惕,其失误的主要原因是没有采取替代分析方法避免思维误区;面对错综复杂的安全形势和不确定的重大战略问题,有必要采用替代分析方法减少情报失误发生几率,确保不出现颠覆性失误。

[Research purpose]Through the review of Sherman Kent's intelligence analysis failure in the Cuban Missile Crisis,we conduct deeper research in and supplements to the"Mindset Theory"to provide advice and reference for the problems to avoid and techniques to adopt in strategic intelligence analysis.[Research method]We review Kent's cognition of mindset,advocated analytic techniques and his failed analytic process during the crisis,explain Alternative Analysis's basic implication,necessity,method and environmental requirements.We reconstruct the analytic process of Cuban Missile Crisis,make a comparison of mindset,theory and practice,to find the main reason of his failure and come to the conclusion.[Research conclusion]Kent was vigilant about mental mindsets,and his failure was largely due to his refusal to adopt alternative analysis techniques to avoid his mindsets;in the face of complex security environment and uncertain important strategic issues,it is necessary to use alternative analysis techniques to reduce the possibility of intelligence analysis failures and ensure that no subversive mistakes will be made.