引爆点理论视角下俄乌舆论战的虚假信息传播分析——以“蛇岛事件”为例

Analysis of Dissemination of False Information in the Russian-Ukrainian Public Opinion War from the Perspective of Tipping Point Theory:Take the"Snake Island Incident"as an Example

[研究目的]俄乌冲突期间社交媒体上的虚假信息严重破坏了信息生态系统的平衡,分析其虚假信息的传播能为我国社交媒体虚假信息的治理提供重要参考。[研究方法]以“蛇岛事件”为例,通过python爬取2022年2月24日至2023年2月24日期间推特平台上的271条推文、70384条转推关系、3579条评论文本,基于引爆点理论的三大黄金法则,从内容、用户和情感三维度构建俄乌舆论战的虚假信息传播分析模型,运用社会网络分析、文本情感分析等方法,基于python的NLTK、TextBlob、spaCy与NRC情感词典等自然语言处理工具,分析虚假推文引爆的特性、用户转推关系及情感动员效果。[研究结论]在内容维度上,虚假推文的形式主要以缺乏实际证据支持的多模态呈现、内容涉及双方多个关键参与主体;在用户维度上,虚假推文的转推网络以个人用户的单链传播为主、网络中各个模块区域的独立性较强、传播速度快但覆盖范围有限;在情感维度上,虚假推文的情感主观性强、受众更关注偏向乌克兰立场的推文且不同立场的推文对受众具有个性化的情感动员效应。为应对国际冲突中的虚假信息泛滥,本文提出建立国际虚假信息共治平台、提高公民甄别虚假信息的能力、打造基于事实的网络舆论场等治理措施。

[Research purpose]False information in social media during the Russia-Ukraine war seriously undermined the balance of the information ecosystem.Analysis of the spread of false information in the Russia-Ukraine public opinion war can provide an important reference for the governance of false information in social media in China.[Research method]The"Snake Island Incident"was taken as an example and 271 tweets,70384 retweet relationships and 3579 comment texts on the Twitter platform from February 24,2022 to February 24,2023 were crawled through Python.Then,based on the three golden rules of tipping point theory,we built a false information dissemination analysis model for the Russian-Ukrainian public opinion war from the three dimensions of content,users and emotions,and used methods such as social network analysis and text sentiment analysis,combined with natural languages processing tools such as Python-based NLTK,TextBlob,spaCy and NRC sentiment dictionaries,to analyze the detonating characteristics of false information tweets,user retweet relationships and emotional mobilization effects.[Research conclusion]In terms of content dimension,false information tweets are mainly multi-modal in form and lack actual evidence,and the content text involves multiple key participants from both parties;in the user dimension,its retweet network is dominated by individual users with single-chain communication,each module area in the network is strongly independent,and the spread speed is fast but the network coverage is limited;in the emotional dimension,false information tweets have strong emotional subjectivity,users pay more attention to tweets that favor Ukraine's stance,and tweets with different stances have a personalized emotional mobilization effect on the audience.Facing the proliferation of false information in international conflicts,this article proposes governance measures such as establishing an international false information co-governance platform,improving citizens'ability to identify false information,and creating an online public opinion field based on facts.