农户数字信息选择对绿色生产风险影响及机制研究——基于小麦种植户调研数据分析

Research on the impact and mechanism of farmers digital information selection on green production risks:Analysis based on survey data of wheat farmers

农户绿色生产风险的规避与防范是粮食产业绿色高质量发展的重要保障。基于河北与河南省912份小麦种植户微观调研数据,运用内生转换Probit模型和反事实分析法,探讨农户数字信息选择对绿色生产风险的影响效应及作用机制。结果表明:43.42%的小麦种植户面临较高的绿色生产风险;数字信息选择能显著降低小麦种植户绿色生产风险,选择数字信息的农户若未选择数字信息,其高绿色生产风险的概率会增加22.48%;数字信息的选择通过信息获取、生产监测、市场分析三个中介路径显著降低农户绿色生产风险。因此,政府应夯实网络基础设施建设,强化数字信息供给的精准性;提高种粮大户的政策性补贴力度,促进小麦种植户规模化产业化经营。

The avoidance and prevention of green production risks for farmers is an important guarantee for the green and high-quality development of the food industry.Based on the micro-survey data of 912 wheat farmers in Hebei and Henan Provinces,this paper uses endogenous switching Probit model and counterfactual analysis method to explore the influence effect and mechanism of farmers digital information selection on green production risks.The results show that:43.42%of wheat farmers face high risks of green production.The selection of digital information can significantly reduce the green production risk of wheat farmers.If farmers who choose digital information do not choose digital information,the probability of high green production risk will increase by 22.48%.The selection of digital information significantly reduces the risk of green production for farmers through three intermediary paths:Information acquisition,production monitoring and market analysis.Therefore,the government should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure,enhance the accuracy of digital information supply,increase the degree of policy subsidies for larger grain growers and promote large-scale industrialized operation of wheat farmers.