“一带一路”安全治理脆弱性分析及应对

Vulnerability analysis and response of securitygovernance along Belt and Road

安全治理脆弱性直接影响共建“一带一路”的安全和进展。将“暴露性敏感性适应性”作为分析框架,可以有效评估“一带一路”安全治理的脆弱性程度,提出针对性更强的应对策略。从暴露性来看,“一带一路”所涉一些安全问题威胁较大、波及面广、存续时间较长,导致“一带一路”安全治理面临强烈冲击。从敏感性来看,“一带一路”尚未形成统一有效的安全治理理念,缺少权威性的安全治理组织和一体有序的安全治理机制,导致“一带一路”安全治理抗冲击能力不足。从适应性来看,“一带一路”共建国家更倾向于追求权力和收益而弱化其中所包含的责任,导致“一带一路”安全治理中权力竞争突显、相关方安全利益分化加重、各参与方安全治理共识不足,削弱了“一带一路”安全治理恢复能力。据此提出对策建议:通过结构的优化和冗余,增强“一带一路”安全治理抗冲击能力;通过自组织演化,提升“一带一路”安全治理适应能力。

The vulnerability of security governance directly affects the security and progress of the Belt and Road construction.An analytical framework of“exposure-sensitivity-adaptability”can effectively assess the vulnerability of the Belt and Road security governance system and put forward more targeted countermeasures.From the perspective of exposure,many security issues along the Belt and Road have high threats,wide coverage,and long duration,which may lead to a strong impact on the Belt and Road security governance.From the perspective of sensitivity,the Belt and Road has not yet formed a unified and effective security governance concept.The lack of an authoritative security governance organization and an integrated and orderly security governance mechanism has led to the lack of anti-shock capability of the Belt and Road security governance.From the perspective of adaptability,the Belt and Road partner countries are more inclined to pursue power and benefits and shirk the responsibilities contained therein,leading to increasingly intensified power competition,increased security interest differentiation,and difficulty in forming consensus on security governance along the Belt and Road,which weakens the resilience of security governance along the Belt and Road.Therefore,through the optimization and redundancy of the structure,the anti-impact ability can be enhanced for the Belt and Road security governance;and through self-organization evolution,the Belt and Road security governance will be more adaptable.