武汉市洪山区中小学校及托幼机构聚集性疫情多尺度时空分析

Multi-scale spatiotemporal characteristics of the clusteredepidemics in primary and secondary schools and kindergartensin Hongshan District,Wuhan City

目的分析武汉市洪山区2015—2022年中小学校及托幼机构聚集性疫情的时空特征,为科学制定管控措施提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对事件进行描述,使用平均中心法和标准椭圆法反映事件的总体分布特点,使用热点分析和核密度分析,探究分析聚集性疫情在年度和季节尺度下的时空特征。结果2015—2022年武汉市洪山区共上报传染病聚集性疫情1563起,排名前三的聚集性疫情病种分别为疱疹性咽峡炎/手口足病、流感样病例、水痘。小学好发流感样病例(76.00%),托幼机构好发疱疹性咽峡炎/手足口病(92.06%),小学和中学均好发水痘(分别为69.70%、21.21%)。随着年份增长,聚集性疫情分布呈现往东北-西南方向扩散的趋势。珞南街道、洪山街道较其他街道,聚集性疫情事件发病密度更高(分别为21.81%、15.86%),需要重点关注。核密度值最高的区域主要集中在洪山区的中部。结论在部署辖区医疗资源和学校疫情防控工作时,应更侧重于重点街道、重点场所,以期获得最佳成本效益。

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the clustered epidemics of common infectious diseases in primary and secondary schools and kindergartens in Hongshan District,Wuhan from 2015 to 2022,and to provide a basis for scientific development of control measures.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe events.Mean center method and standard ellipse method were used to reflect the overall distribution characteristics of the events,and hot spot analysis and nuclear density analysis were used to explore and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of clustered epidemics at annual and seasonal scales.Results From 2015 to 2022,a total of 1563 clustered outbreaks of infectious diseases were reported in primary and secondary schools and kindergartens in Hongshan District of Wuhan.The top three clustered epidemic diseases were hand-mouth-foot disease(HFMD)/herpangina,influenza like cases,and varicella,respectively.Primary schools were prone to influenza like cases(76.00%),kindergartens were prone to HFMD/herpangina(92.06%),and primary schools and middle schools were prone to varicella(69.70%and 21.21%respectively).As the years grew,the clustered epidemics showed a trend of spreading towards the northeast and southwest direction.Compared with other places,Luonan Street and Hongshan Street had a higher incidence density of clustered epidemic events(21.81%and 15.86%respectively),which requires special attention.The areas with the highest nuclear density value in each season were mainly concentrated in the middle of Hongshan District.There were two clusters of HFMD/herpangina concentrated in Luonan Street,Liyuan and Heping Street,which was different from other diseases.Conclusion When deploying medical resources and epidemic prevention and control work in schools within the jurisdiction,more emphasis should be placed on key streets and places to achieve the best cost-effectiveness.