积极财政政策的回顾与展望

Review and Outlook of Proactive Fiscal Policy

从1998年应对亚洲金融危机,到2008年应对全球金融危机,再到2020年及以后应对新冠疫情冲击与推动经济复苏,积极财政政策发挥着推动经济企稳向好的关键作用,但同样也因其可持续性和有效性以及可能带来的经济变化而引起广泛争论。为此,回顾积极财政政策的整个历史脉络,有助于我们在观察历史的基础上理解当前积极财政政策正在展开的方式。从体制环境、政策工具和政策成本等角度努力求解积极财政政策的有效性,不难发现:其一,财政体制是适应和支撑积极财政政策有效运行的关键。财政承受力决定积极财政政策的信心和底气,而体制与政策的匹配有助于提升政策运行的效率。其二,中央采取不同的政策工具会促使地方政府做出不同反应,积极财政政策能否产生预期效果取决于中央和地方目标、行动的一致性。其三,政策成本的类型及其可被消化的程度决定着积极财政政策空间的大小。这就要求政策的最终目的不在于盲目救助,而是真正地将政府财政作为转化为与社会主体协力应对危机的行为,以发展活力消化政策成本。进一步将提升积极财政政策的有效性融入对国家宏观经济治理与全球经济危机应对的思考中,可以得出积极财政政策的未来方向在于处理好体制改革与政策选择、短期调节与中长期努力、国家能力与社会活力之间的关系,从而更加有力、有效、有序、有为地实施积极财政政策。

From the Asian financial crisis in 1998 to the global financial crisis in 2008,to the response to the impact of the COVID-19 and promoting economic recovery in 2020 and beyond,proactive fiscal policy has played a key role in stabilizing the economy,but it has also been widely debated for its sustainability and effectiveness,as well as the economic changes it may bring.Thus,a review of the entire historical context of proactive fiscal policy will help us understand the way in which proactive fiscal policy is currently carrying out on the basis of historical observation.From the perspectives of institutional environment,policy tools,and policy costs,it is not difficult to find that:First,the fiscal system is the key to adapting to and supporting the effective operation of the proactive fiscal policy.The fiscal affordability determines the confidence of the proactive fiscal policy,and the matching of institutions and policies is conducive to improving the efficiency of policy operation.Second,the adoption of different policy tools by the central government will prompt local governments to respond differently,and whether the proactive fiscal policy can be effective depends on the consistency of the goals and actions of the central and local governments.Third,the size of the fiscal policy space depends on the type of policy costs and the extent to which they can be absorbed.This requires that the ultimate purpose of the policy is not to blindly bail out,but to truly transform government finance action into the behavior of cooperating with social subjects to deal with the crisis,so as to develop vitality and absorb the cost of policy.By further integrating the improvement of the effectiveness of the proactive fiscal policy into the thinking of national macroeconomic governance and the response to the global economic crisis,it can be concluded that the future direction of the proactive fiscal policy lies in handling the relationship between institutional reform and policy choice,short-term adjustment and medium-and long-term efforts,and national capacity and social vitality,so as to implement the proactive fiscal policy more powerfully,effectively,orderly,and promisingly.