农业技术服务对粮食绿色生产效率影响——基于广义随机森林模型

The Impact of Agricultural Technology Services on the Efficiency of Green Grain Production:An Analysis based on the Generalized Stochastic Forest Model

当前粮食绿色生产面临技术短缺的难题,农业技术服务作为农户技术重要来源,探讨农业技术服务如何影响粮食绿色生产以提高粮食绿色生产效率具有重要意义。本文基于中国土地经济调查数据(CLES),首先采用三阶段DEA模型计算粮食绿色生产效率,其次采用广义随机森林模型实证检验农业技术服务对粮食绿色生产效率的影响、异质性及作用路径。研究发现:(1)农业技术服务显著正向影响粮食绿色生产效率,其中产前、产中农业技术服务显著提升粮食绿色生产效率,产后阶段农业技术服务回报并不显著,并且组合农业技术服务对于粮食绿色生产效率有较大的提升作用。(2)农户资源配置对农业技术服务提升粮食绿色生产效率边际效应影响具有异质性。家庭农业劳动人口比例的增加和家庭经营耕地规模扩大显著降低农业技术服务的回报。(3)通过对机制变量的分析发现,农业技术服务主要通过农药使用、化肥使用行为对粮食绿色生产效率产生影响,且对粮食绿色生产效率呈现显著提升作用。结论认为政府应当扩大农业技术服务范围,充分发挥农业技术服务粮食绿色生产效率提升效应;因地制宜、因人施策,在提供农业技术服务过程中加强绿色生产理念的引导,促进农户绿色生产行为。

The green production of food currently faces the challenge of technological shortage.As agricultural technology services are an important source of technical knowledge for farmers,it is of great significance to explore how agricultural technology services influence the efficiency of green food production in order to improve its productivity.This study utilized data from the China Land and Economy Survey(CLES).Firstly,the three-stage DEA model was used to calculate the efficiency of green food production.Secondly,the generalized random forest model was used to empirically test the impact,heterogeneity,and pathways of agricultural technology services on the efficiency of green food production.This study found that:(1)Agricultural technology services have a significant positive impact on the efficiency of green food production.Among the stages,pre-production and mid-production agricultural technology services significantly improve the efficiency of green food production.However,post-production agricultural technology services do not show a significant impact.Additionally,the combination of agricultural technology services has a significant improvement effect on the efficiency of green food production.(2)The marginal effects of resource allocation by farmers have heterogeneity in terms of the impact on the efficiency of agricultural technology services in improving green food production.An increase in the proportion of the family agricultural labor force and the expansion of family-operated arable land scale significantly reduce the returns of agricultural technology services.(3)An analysis of mechanism variables showed that agricultural technology services mainly affect the efficiency of green food production through pesticide and fertilizer usage behavior,and significantly contribute to its improvement.The government should expand the scope of agricultural technology services and fully utilize their potential to improve the efficiency of green food production.Tailored strategies and policies should be implemented to guide the concept of green production during the provision of agricultural technology services,thereby promoting sustainable agricultural practices among farmers.