四川省能源和粮食生产用水竞争及与经济关系研究

Water Competition and Economic Relationship between Energy and Food Production in Sichuan Province

水-能源-粮食系统存在相互依存、相互制约的复杂关系,量化该系统的相互关系,对于合理配置和协调利用水、能源和粮食资源,促进区域社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文运用能源和粮食生产水足迹模型、竞争指数模型、脱钩理论及锡尔指数等方法,核算分析了四川省2009—2019年能源和粮食生产水足迹及其时空变化特征,以及能源和粮食生产对水的竞争关系,探究了水足迹和地区生产总值的内在联系。研究结果表明:能源和粮食生产水足迹均呈上升趋势。能源生产蓝水足迹年均值为5.45×10^(9) m^(3),占能源生产水足迹的93.76%;粮食生产蓝水足迹年均值为1.06×10^(10) m^(3),占粮食生产水足迹的26.02%,绿水足迹的贡献率超过蓝水足迹和灰水足迹之和,占比53.06%。四川省能源和粮食生产对水的竞争指数呈上升趋势,增幅为42.69%。由于川西北生态示范区和攀西经济区等地区兼顾粮食和水电生产,其竞争指数明显高于其他地区。四川省水足迹和地区生产总值的脱钩关系为弱脱钩,处于相对协调发展状态,说明经济发展对用水量的控制状态相对较好;水足迹强度总差异呈扩张趋势,说明四川省用水效率不均衡性逐渐扩大,但研究后期有所下降,发展逐渐趋同。该研究可为四川省水资源调配、能源开发和粮食生产提供建议,也可为该地区优化经济发展方式以及用水效率的协同发展提供参考。

There is a complex relationship of interdependence and mutual constraint in the water-energy-food system,and quantifying the interrelationships of the water-energy-food system is of great significance for the rational allocation and coordinated utilization of water,energy and food resources,as well as for promoting sustainable socio-economic development in the region.The models of energy and food production water footprint,competition index,decoupling theory and Theil index were applied to calculate and analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the water footprint of energy and food production in Sichuan Province from 2009 to 2019.It also explored the competition relationship between energy and food production for water and investigated the inherent connection between water footprint and gross domestic product(GDP).The research findings were as follows:both the water footprint of food production and the water footprint of energy production showed an increasing trend.The annual average blue water footprint of energy production was 5.45×10^(9)m^(3),accounting for 93.76%of the water footprint of energy production.The annual average blue water footprint of food production was 1.06×10^(10)m^(3),accounting for 26.02%of the water footprint of food production,and the contribution of the green water footprint exceeded the sum of blue water footprint and grey water footprint,accounting for 53.06%.The competition index of water for energy and food production in Sichuan Province was on the rise,with an increase of 42.69%.Due to the consideration of both food and hydropower production in areas such as the Ecological Demonstration Zone in Northwest Sichuan and the Panxi Economic Zone,their competition index was significantly higher than that in other areas.The decoupling relationship between the water footprint and GDP of Sichuan Province was weakly decoupling and in a state of relatively coordinated development,indicating that economic development had a relatively good state of control over water consumption.The total difference in water footprint intensity showed an expanding trend,indicating that the unevenness of water use efficiency in Sichuan Province was gradually expanding,but it declined in the later period of the study,with a gradual convergence of development.The research result can provide suggestions for water resource allocation,energy development and food production in Sichuan Province,as well as for optimizing the economic development approach and the coordinated development of water use efficiency.