中国社会治理现代化水平的统计测度与时空特征

Statistical Measurement and Spatiotemporal Characteristics of China’s Social Governance Modernization Level

文章基于2012—2021年中国31个省份的面板数据,从社会稳定、社会参与、社会公正、社会成长和公共服务5个维度构建中国社会治理现代化评价指标体系,用熵权-TOPSIS法、Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数和核密度估计法考察其地区差异和时空演变特征。研究发现:总体上社会治理现代化水平呈稳步上升趋势,但区域不平衡的问题仍然存在,省份间呈现“东优西劣”的发展趋势;区域差异呈现先扩大后缩小的“倒U”型趋势,地区间差异在整体差异中占主导地位,地区内差异对总体差异的贡献也不容忽视;不同区域的社会治理现代化水平并非随机分布的,而是存在一定的空间集聚现象;全国社会治理现代化水平的绝对差异表现出一定幅度的扩大趋势,中西部地区存在一定程度的极化现象。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of China’s social governance modernization from five dimensions:social stability,social participation,social justice,social growth and public service,and then uses entropy weight-TOPSIS method,Dagum Gini coefficient,Moran’s index and kernel density estimation method to investigate the regional differences and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics.The results go as below:On the whole,the level of modernization of social governance shows a steady upward trend,but the problem of regional imbalance still exists,and the development trend among provinces is“superior in the east and inferior in the west”.Regional differences show an inverted U-shaped pattern of first expanding and then shrinking.Inter-regional differences play a dominant role in the overall differences,and the contribution of intra-regional differences to the overall differences cannot be ignored.The level of social governance modernization in different regions is not random distribution,but there is a certain spatial agglomeration phenomenon.The absolute difference in the level of social governance modernization across the country shows a certain increase trend,and there is a certain degree of polarization in the central and western regions.