巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴有效衔接的时空演进

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Effective Connection Between Consolidating and Expanding Poverty Alleviation Achievements and Rural Revitalization

文章基于2010—2020年中国省级面板数据,采用耦合协调度模型、空间Markov链模型,研究脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴衔接程度、时空分布格局、空间动态演进机制及驱动因素。研究结果表明:就脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的衔接程度而言,大部分省份处于高度与极度协调状态,其中“乡村振兴滞后型”占大多数。衔接程度的动态演进在时序上呈现稳步向上发展趋势,较难实现跨越式转移,处于高度协调阶段的省份存在“俱乐部趋同”现象;空间上中西部地区省份多呈现向上转移趋势,部分省份保持“俱乐部趋同”,同时邻域环境对于有效衔接具有重要的作用,衔接程度高的省份对周围省份会产生正向溢出效应,呈现“高高”集聚的“俱乐部收敛”现象。脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的衔接驱动机制具有多样性,其中政府驱动与产业驱动具有负效应,收入驱动与市场驱动总体呈现正效应。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2020,this paper uses the coupling coordination model and spatial Markov chain model to study the connection degree between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization,the spatial and temporal distribution pattern,the spatial dynamic evolution mechanism and driving factors.The results are shown as follows:Most provinces are in a highly and extremely coordinated state in terms of the degree of connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization,among which“rural revitalization lagging”accounts for the majority.The dynamic evolution of the connection degree shows a steady upward development in time sequence,which is difficult to achieve leapfrog transfer.There is a phenomenon of“club convergence”in areas at a highly coordinated stage.In terms of space,most of the central and western provinces show an upward shift trend.Some provinces maintain“club convergence”.At the same time,the neighborhood environment plays an important role in the effective connection.Provinces with high degree of connection will have a positive spillover effect on the surrounding provinces,forming a“club convergence”phenomenon with“high-high”agglomeration.The connection driving mechanism between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization is diversified,in which government driven and industry driven have negative effects,and income driven and market driven have positive effects on the whole.