中国战略性新兴产业投入产出表编制及部门结构分析

Input-Output Table Compilation and Sector Structure Analysis of China’s Strategic Emerging Industries

编制2020年战略性新兴产业投入产出表对深入考察战略性新兴产业现状、合理配置行业资源、调整产业结构具有深远意义。编制过程中的主要难点在于分离系数的确定,为此文章创新性地将时间比例因子漂移法与传统就业人数法相结合,有效提升了数据的科学性,为常常受制于数据可获得性的分离系数提供了有效参考。基于时间比例因子漂移法的编制结果表明,战略性新兴产业部门大多存在乘数效应和溢出效应强的现象,相较而言,反馈效应占比则处于弱势;战略性新兴产业需求对劳动者报酬的拉动主要是由技术更新换代较快的产业,如新一代信息技术产业所引发;进一步地,由网络密度、凝聚子群、网络出入度从供需视角观测战略性新兴产业部门间经济技术联系程度并分辨产业链中的上下游部门。

The compilation of the input-output table of strategic emerging industries in 2020 has far-reaching significance for in-depth investigation of the status quo of strategic emerging industries,rational allocation of industry resources,and adjustment of industrial structure.The main difficulty in the compilation process is the determination of the separation coefficient.In view of this,the paper innovatively combines the time scale factor drift method with the traditional employment number method,which effectively improves the scientificity of data and provides an effective reference for the separation coefficient often limited by the availability of data.The compilation results based on time-scale factor drift method are shown as below:Most of the strategic emerging industries have strong multiplier effect and spillover effect,but the proportion of feedback effect is weak in comparison.The demand of strategic emerging industries is mainly driven by industries with rapid technological upgrading,such as the new generation of information technology industry.Furthermore,by the network density,coacervated subgroups and network access,and from the perspective of supply and demand,the paper observes the degree of economic and technological linkages between strategic emerging industries and the upstream and distinguish the upstream and downstream sectors in the industrial chain.