绿色信贷、偏向性技术进步与绿色转型发展研究——基于动态金融CGE模型的模拟分析

Research on Green Credit,Biased Technological Progress and Green Transformation Development:Simulation Analysis based on Dynamic Financial CGE Model

选取2017年中国地区投入产出表和2021年相关数据构建SAM表,刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径,评估绿色信贷政策对企业创新的影响。研究发现:绿色信贷政策对抑制目标行业的投资行为较为有效,并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工行业产出;从长期来看,目标行业投资、产出回升将抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。这表明在研究绿色信贷政策与企业绿色创新活动的关系时,应重视偏向性技术创新的作用,并动态追踪绿色信贷在短期、中期、长期的作用效果。

Select the China's 2017 inflow and outflow table and 2021 related data,this paper constructs a SAM table to describe the transmission path of green credit policies and assess the impact of green credit policies on firms'innovation performance.The findings are as follows:Green credit policy can effectively inhibit the investment behavior of target industries,and reduce the output of paper and chemical industries in the short and medium term.In the long run,the recovery of investment and output in target industries will offset the effect of green credit on inhibiting output in target industries.This indicates that when studying the relationship between green credit policies and enterprises'green innovation activities,we should pay attention to the role of biased technological innovation,and dynamically track the effects of green credit in the short,medium and long term.