江西省细分行业碳排放脱钩状态及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Status of Carbon Emission Decoupling and the Influencing Factors of Various Industries in Jiangxi Province

为响应经济与环境的协同发展,实现“双碳”发展目标,研究行业碳排放及脱钩情况具有一定现实意义。研究以2000研究行业年江西省各类数据为基础,采用Tapio脱钩模型判别各行业脱钩情况,结合LMDI模型深入研究影响各行业碳排放的驱动因素,厘清脱钩关系背后动因。结果表明:1)2000影响各行业年,江西省碳排增量10188.6×10^(4)t,能源消费结构中以化石能源为主,能源消费强度呈下降趋势。2)研究期内,经济增长对碳排放产生增量效应;人口增长对碳排放呈现先增后减现象;产业结构对碳排放的影响具有波动性且效力较大;能源强度和能源结构对碳排放整体呈现增量作用,各行业存在显著差异。3)研究期内江西省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩情况整体向好,第一产业、第二产业内整体呈现脱钩状态,而第三产业整体处于负脱钩状态。从多角度对江西省细分行业碳排放脱钩进行研究,以期为节能减排、实现产业转型提供参考建议。

In order to respond to the coordinated development of economy and environment and achieve the goal of“dual carbon”development,it is of certain practical significance to study the carbon emissions and decoupling of industries.Based on the various data of Jiangxi province in 2000,the study adopts the Tapio decoupling model to identify the decoupling situation of each industry,and combines the LMDI model to explore the driving factors affecting the carbon emissions of each industry and clarify the motivation behind the decoupling relationship.The results show that:1)In 2000,the carbon emission of Jiangxi province increased by 10188.6×10^(4) t,and the energy consumption structure was dominated by fossil energy,and the energy consumption intensity showed a downward trend.2)During the study period,economic growth has an incremental effect on carbon emissions;Population growth first increases and then decreases carbon emissions.The impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions is volatile and effective.Energy intensity and energy mix have an overall incremental effect on carbon emissions,with significant differences across industries.3)During the study period,the decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangxi province is generally better,with the primary industry and the secondary industry showing a state of decoupling,while the tertiary industry as a whole is in a state of negative decoupling.This paper studies the carbon emission decoupling of segmented industries in Jiangxi province from multiple perspectives,in order to provide reference suggestions for energy conservation and emission reduction and industrial transformation.