基于Informer的电离层电子总量预测

Prediction of Total Ionospheric Electron Content Based on Informer

电离层会影响卫星导航和通信信号的传播和反射,而电离层总电子含量(TEC)则是评估电离层异常扰动的关键指标,因此,精准预测电离层TEC具有重要意义。本研究从国际GNSS服务(IGS)电离层分析中心获取全球1999—2011年的电离层TEC的时间序列数据,时间分辨率为2小时。选取5个位置,构建了Informer模型预测未来24小时的TEC数据,为研究电离层异常扰动提供科学依据。在多个模型对比中,Informer模型的R-Squared和RMSE表现最佳,验证了Informer方法的可行性。

The ionosphere affects the propagation and reflection of satellite navigation and communication signals,and the Total Electron Content(TEC)in the ionosphere is a key indicator for assessing ionospheric disturbances.Therefore,accurate prediction of ionospheric TEC is of great significance.In this study,we obtain global ionospheric TEC time series data from the International GNSS Service(IGS)Ionospheric Analysis Center for the years 1999-2011,with a time resolution of 2 hours.We select five locations and build an Informer model to forecast TEC data for the next 24 hours,providing a scientific basis for studying ionospheric disturbances.Among the various models compared,the Informer model demonstrates the best performance in terms of R-Squared and RMSE,confirming the feasibility of the Informer method.