中国出口对欧洲二氧化碳排放的影响效应估计与机制分析

Estimation and mechanism analysis of the impact of China’s exports on carbon dioxide emissions in Europe

随着中欧贸易蓬勃发展,中国已跃升为欧洲的主要贸易伙伴和首要进口来源地。数据显示,中国对欧洲的出口与欧洲各地区的CO_(2)排放量呈显著负相关。基于该视角,利用1997—2014年中国对全球各国的出口面板数据进行了实证检验,深入探讨了中国出口对欧洲CO_(2)排放的影响。研究结果显示,中国对欧洲的出口增长显著降低了欧洲的CO_(2)排放。通过机制分析,中国出口对欧洲整体CO_(2)排放存在替代作用,且对不同国家存在异质性——欧洲发达国家呈现净减排作用,而发展中国家呈现净促进作用。这种差异主要源于两个效应:生产替代效应和经济增长效应。对此,提出相关对策建议:一是调整国内产业结构,实现能源低碳转型;二是提高国内低碳减排技术发展水平,推动国际技术合作;三是优化贸易产品结构,提高绿色产品的国际竞争力。

With the rapid development of trade between China and Europe,China has emerged as Europe’s primary trading partner and major source of imports.The data reveal that China’s exports to Europe are significantly negatively correlated with CO_(2) emissions in various regions of Europe.Based on this perspective,this paper uses the panel data on China’s exports to countries around the world from 1997 to 2014 to empirically test and deeply explore the impact of China’s exports on CO_(2) emissions in Europe.The research results show that the growth of China’s exports to Europe has significantly reduced Europe’s CO_(2) emissions.Through mechanism analysis,it is revealed that China’s exports exert a substitution effect on the overall CO_(2) emissions in Europe,with heterogeneity observed among different countries;Developed countries in Europe exhibit a net reduction effect on emissions while developing countries display a net promotion effect.This difference mainly stems from two factors:production substitution effects and economic growth effects.In light of these findings,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions:Firstly,adjust the domestic industrial structure to achieve low-carbon energy transformation;Secondly,improve the development level of domestic low-carbon emission reduction technologies to promote international technological cooperation;Thirdly,optimize the structure of trade products to enhance the international competitiveness of green products.