网络零售对城乡居民消费的影响及异质性分析

Heterogeneity Analysis and Influence of Online Retail on the Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents

网络零售在数字经济发展下已成为销售供给的新形态,作为消费市场的重要组成部分,其对构建经济新发展格局、激发城乡居民消费潜力意义重大。基于网络零售与居民消费的内在关联,文章构建了网络零售与城乡居民消费的影响机制,通过中介效应模型对理论机制进行检验。研究发现:网络零售对城乡居民消费具有显著的促进作用,但是对线下消费存在一定的“挤出效应”;影响机制分析表明,提高社会保障、促进行业内竞争是实现网络零售带动城乡居民消费的重要路径;异质性检验结果显示,网络零售对城乡居民消费促进作用东部要高于中西部,表现出东-中-西的梯度特征。据此,文章提出应巩固培养新兴消费增长点,促进线上线下融合发展,并构建多样化消费生态,推动经济新旧动能转化,以期进一步释放城乡居民消费潜力。

Online retail has become a new form of sales and supply under the development of digital economy.As an important part of the consumer market,it is of great significance to build a new economic development pattern and stimulate the consumption potential of urban and rural residents.Based on the internal correlation between online retail and residents'consumption,this paper constructs the influence mechanism between online retail and urban and rural residents'consumption,and tests the theoretical mechanism through intermediary effect model.The study shows that online retail has a significant effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents,but it has certain"crowding out effect"on the offline consumption.The influence mechanism shows that improving social security and promoting competition in the industry are important ways to promote the consumption of the urban and rural residents through online retail.Heterogeneity test shows that the effect of online retail on the consumption of rural residents is more significantly in the east compared with the central and western regions,showing the gradient of east-central-west.Accordingly,this paper proposes to consolidate and cultivate emerging consumption growth points,promote the integration of online and offline development,build a diversified consumption ecology,and promote the transformation of old and new economic drivers,in order to further release the consumption potential of urban and rural residents.