大国博弈下全球原油供应格局调整及对中国的启示与建议

Adjustment of global crude oil supply pattern under the great power game and its inspiration on China

近年来,全球原油供应格局在地缘政治格局动荡下发生重要调整。中东地区作为欧佩克的主要阵地,仍是全球石油供应的重要调节阀,但随着减产规模扩大,其市场份额显著下降;美洲地区原油产量跃升,美国、加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国是全球原油新增供应的主要贡献者;非洲主要产油国产量迅速衰减,市场份额流失,尼日利亚和安哥拉在全球市场中的地位急剧下降;独联体地区受乌克兰危机影响,贸易流向发生根本性变化,但市场份额基本保持稳定。当前中国已经形成较为稳定的进口来源渠道,但原油进口依存度较高,进口来源地较为集中,地缘政治冲突对中国原油进口形成严峻挑战。为保障国家能源安全和经济稳定发展,建议持续推进国内油气增储上产,提高国内资源自给能力;优化提升全球原油资源配置,做好资源经济性采购;形成地缘政治风险预警机制,提升资源安全供应能力。

In recent years,the global crude oil supply pattern has undergone important adjustments in the turbulent geopolitical landscape.The Middle East,as OPEC's main members,is still an important control valve of global oil supply,but its market share has declined significantly with the expansion of the scale of production cuts.Crude oil production in the Americas has jumped,and such countries as the United States,Canada,Brazil,and Guyana are the main contributors to global crude oil additions.Production in the major African oil producing countries has been declining rapidly with a loss of market share and Nigeria&Angola's position in the global market has declined sharply.The CIS region,affected by the Ukraine issue,has undergone fundamental changes in trade flows,but the market share has remained basically stable.Now China has formed a more stable import source channel,its foreign dependence rate of crude oil is still quite high,imports is quite focused on some countries and regions,and geopolitical conflicts pose a serious challenge on China's crude oil imports.In order to ensure national energy security and stable economic development,the paper proposes promoting domestic oil and gas reserves and production continuously,improving domestic resource self-sufficiency,optimizing and enhancing the allocation of global crude oil resources,bettering economic procurement of resources,realizing an early warning mechanism of geopolitical risks,and elevating the ability to secure the supply of resources.