中国碳排放权交易市场发展现状与展望

Development status and prospects of China's carbon emission trading market

碳排放权交易机制作为全球各国控制温室气体排放的重要手段之一,由于其良好的政策兼容性、金融衍生性,在全球发展势头强劲。从政策制度的完善、全国性及区域性碳市场交易现状、自愿减排市场现状三方面对中国碳市场发展现状进行分析,并综合考虑国际成熟碳市场发展经验、国家政策动向等因素,对中国碳市场未来发展趋势进行展望:中国碳市场扩容是必然趋势,电解铝、水泥和钢铁将依次纳入碳市场;配额总量将不断下降,拍卖比例预计将达到5%;预期碳价“十四五”升至80~100元/吨左右,“十五五”升至130~200元/吨;电力市场与碳市场协同统筹发展是必然选择;碳市场和碳税联合使用将是未来政府控排管理的主要方式。从宏观和微观两个层面提出适时稳步扩大碳市场覆盖范围、不断提高配额拍卖比例、系统构建企业内部碳核查与信息披露机制以强化碳管理效能与透明度等发展建议。

The carbon emission trading mechanism,one of the significant tools for countries worldwide to manage greenhouse gases,has developed substantially due to its strong policy compatibility and financial derivative attributes.The paper analyzes the current status of China's carbon market from such three aspects as the improvement of policy systems,the current trading status of national and regional carbon market transactions,and the status quo of voluntary emission reduction markets and forecasts future development trends in China's carbon market by comprehensively taking into account mature international carbon market development experiences and domestic policy development trends.It gives an outlook on the future development trend of China's carbon market as the expansion of China's carbon market is inevitable,electrolytic aluminum,cement,and steel sectors are expected to be involved successively,the total carbon quota will gradually shrink and the auction proportion is anticipated to reach 5%,China's carbon price is projected to rise to nearly CNY 80-100 per ton by China's 14~(th)Five-Year Plan period and increase to around CNY 130-200 per ton by China's 15~(th)Five-Year Plan period,the electricity and carbon markets must develop synergistically and comprehensively,and the joint use of carbon markets and carbon taxes will become the primary approach for government control and management of emissions.At both macro and micro levels,it proposes such development proposals as steadily expanding the coverage of the carbon market at an appropriate time,continuously increasing the ratio of quota auctions,and establishing and systematizing the internal carbon audit and disclosure system of enterprises.