减税降费对我国财政韧性的影响机制研究

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Tax and Fee Reduction on China s Fiscal Resilience

在我国经济从高速增长到高质量发展转型的过程中,为鼓励企业创新和居民消费,政府实施了一系列的减税降费政策。减税降费能否通过政府收入的“减法”,换取企业效益的“加法”和市场活力的“乘法”,从而推动经济增长和财政收入的增加,财政收支趋于平衡呢?本文基于跨期预算约束理论,利用1978~2018年中国财政收支、人口老龄化程度、通货膨胀率等时间序列数据,通过协整检验、多元线性回归检验和门槛检验我国财政是否具有韧性以及减税降费政策对财政韧性的影响。实证结果表明:减税降费政策可以在一定程度上提高整体财政韧性。当实际经济增长率较高时,减税降费政策对提高财政韧性的作用更大,但对地方财政韧性的促进作用较弱。因此,防范财政韧性较弱的风险,应维持一定的经济增长率,严格控制政府支出规模,优化支出结构,防范和化解地方政府的隐性债务。

In the process of economic transition from rapid growth to high-quality development in China,to encourage enterprise innovation and resident consumption,the government has implemented a series of tax and fee reduction policies.Could tax and fee reduction be achieved through the“reduction”of government revenue in exchange for the“addition”of corporate efficiency and the“multiplication”of market vitality,so as to promote economic growth and the increase of fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure to balance?Based on the intertemporal budget constraint theory,this paper uses the time series data of China s fiscal revenue and expenditure,the degree of population aging,and the inflation rate from 1978 to 2018 to test whether China s fiscal resilience and the impact of tax and fee reduction policies on fiscal resilience through co-integration tests,multiple linear regression tests and thresholds.The empirical results show that tax and fee reduction policies can improve the overall fiscal resilience to a certain extent.When the real economic growth rate is high,tax and fee reduction policies have a greater effect on improving fiscal resilience,but have a weaker effect on promoting local fiscal resilience.Therefore,to prevent the risk of weak fiscal resilience,we should maintain a certain economic growth rate,strictly control the scale of government expenditure,optimize the expenditure structure,and prevent and resolve the hidden debt of local governments.