人口老龄化、经济增长与高质量发展

Population Aging,Economic Growth and High-quality Development

人口老龄化是现代化进程中人口转变的结果。在中国式现代化视域下,经济高质量发展既是一个渐进的自然过程,也是人口和经济发展到一定阶段的内在要求,是经济增长速度和经济发展质量的统一。人口老龄化通过储蓄和消费、人力资本、公共支出、科技创新及其他机制影响经济增长和高质量发展,导致人口老龄化与经济增长和高质量发展的关系是非线性的,这得到了国际经验和中国实践的证实,21世纪前10年是中国人口老龄化影响经济增长由正向到负向的转折期;从经济高质量发展角度看,人口老龄化的影响也大致呈现相同轨迹。以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化,要避免夸大人口老龄化的负面影响,也不要忽视人口规模因素的影响,以系统观念认识和理解人口老龄化条件下的经济增长和高质量发展潜能。

Population aging is the result of population transformation in the process of modernization.From the perspective of Chinese path to modernization,high-quality economic development is not only a gradual natural process,but also an internal requirement for population and economic development to a certain stage.It is the unity of economic growth rate and the quality of economic development.Population aging affects economic growth and high-quality development through savings and consumption,human capital,public expenditure,scientific and technological innovation and other mechanisms,which leads to the nonlinear relationship between population aging and economic growth and high-quality development,confirmed by international experience and Chinese practice.The first 10 years of 21st century is the transition period of the effect of population aging on economic growth from positive to negative in China;from the perspective of high-quality economic development,the impact of population aging also shows the same trajectory.To support Chinese path to modernization with high-quality population development,we should not only avoid exaggerating the negative impact of population aging,but also not ignore the impact of population size factors,and understand the economic growth and high-quality development potential under population aging with a systematic concept.