山东近15年首场区域性暴雨物理量特征诊断分析

Diagnostic Analysis of Physical Quantity Characteristics of the First Regional Rainstorm in Shandong in Recent 15 Years

利用近15年(2008—2022年)资料对山东首场区域性暴雨进行分析,结果表明:①山东首场区域性暴雨均发生在4—6月,发生在鲁中、鲁南的概率最大.②影响系统主要有三类,以温带气旋暴雨最多,其次是低涡切变线暴雨和低槽冷锋暴雨.③首场区域性暴雨发生时,700、850、925hPa比湿分别在7.33、9.97、11.6g/kg左右,绝对水汽条件弱于常规区域性暴雨,但湿层深厚;850 hPa假相当位温在60℃左右,能量条件弱于常规区域性暴雨;700和850 hPa有19.5和17.1m/s的低空急流,动力条件强于常规区域性暴雨.综合利用以上条件和数值模式预报结果,可以对数值模式的降水量级进行有效订正.

This paper analyzes the real data of the first regional rainstorm in Shandong in the past 15 years(2008-2022).The results showed that:①The first regional rainstorm in Shandong occurred from April to June,with a higher probability of occurrence in central and southern regions.②There are three main types of affected systems,in which extratropical cyclone rainstorm was the most,followed by low vortex with shear line rainstorm and low trough cold front rainstorm.③When the first regional rainstorm occurs,the specific humidity of 700,850 and 925 hPa were about 7.33,9.97 and 11.6 g/kg.The absolute water vapor conditions were weaker than conventional regional rainstorm,but the wet layer were deep.The 850 hPa pseudo equivalent potential temperature was about 60℃,indicating that the energy conditions were weaker than conventional regional rainstorm.The 700 and 850 hPa had 19.5 m/s and 17.1m/s low level jet streams,and their dynamic conditions were stronger than conventional regional rainstorms.By using the above conditions and the forecast results of the numerical model,the precipitation level of the numerical model can be revised effectively.