基于基础情景的新疆建筑领域碳排放预测方法研究

Research on Prediction Methods of Carbon Emission in Xinjiang Construction Field Based on Basic Scenario

针对新疆地域宽广,建筑节能水平差异大,缺少精准预测建筑领域碳排放、优化节能减碳的办法,提出基于基础情景分析的建筑领域碳排放预测模型。首先,根据新疆建筑领域用能现状,确定建筑用能影响的外生变量因素。其次,考虑建筑节能、绿色建筑等对未来建筑用能影响,利用情景分析法设定不同的发展情景,结合建筑规模预测和经济发展模式,测算城镇居住建筑、公共建筑、农村住宅和集中供热模块用能需求。最后,通过用能统计、能碳转换得到基础情景下建筑碳排放总量。基础情景下的预测结果表明,该方法能够有效预测未来碳排放趋势。

In view of the broad region,the large difference in building energy saving level,there is a lack of accurate prediction of carbon emission in the building field and the optimization of energy saving and carbon reduction means in Xinjiang,the carbon emission prediction model in the building field based on basic scenario analysis is proposed.Firstly,according to the current situation of energy use in the construction field in Xinjiang,determine the exogenous variables of building energy consumption;secondly,considering the influence of building energy conservation and green building,set different development scenarios and economic development model to calculate the energy demand of urban residential buildings,public building,rural housing and central heating.Finally,the total carbon emission of buildings under the basic scenario is calculated by the calculation of energy statistics and carbon conversion.The prediction results in the low,medium and high scenarios show that the proposed method can effectively predict the future carbon emission trends.