基于云模型-模糊FMECA法的水库大坝安全性分析

Safety Analysis of Reservoir Dams Based on Cloud Model-Fuzzy FMECA Method

模糊FMECA法通过对水库大坝隐患出现的频率、影响程度进行评价,并通过赋予权重及模糊综合评判对大坝进行风险评估,具有一定的科学性及实用性,但仍存在无法体现大坝隐患因子的随机性及无法准确反应专家主观偏好关系的缺陷。基于此,提出了云模型-模糊FMECA法的水库大坝安全性分析方法,将模糊FMECA法中的评判矩阵、权重矩阵、对应的评语集进行逆向计算,得出了云模型数字特征值,通过模糊评判得到水库大坝风险评判结果的云模型;根据约束条件确定相应评语集的云模型的数字特征值,将大坝风险评判结果的云模型及各评语集云模型通过MATLAB仿真化,以此实现对水库大坝的安全性评价;将该方法运用到云南省某大坝中,得到了该大坝的内部安全评估等级为A,与现场专家组评判结果一致。证明了基于云模型-模糊FMECA法的水库大坝安全性分析具有一定的可行性及科学性。

FMECA-fuzzy hierarchical analysis method evaluates the occurrence frequency and the impact degree of hidden dangers in reservoir dams and conducts risk assessment on dams by assigning weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,which has certain scientific and practical significance.However,there are still deficiencies in reflecting the randomness of dam hazard factors and accurately reflecting the subjective preference of experts.Based on this,the safety analysis of reservoir dams based on the cloud model-fuzzy FMECA method was proposed.The evaluation matrix,weight matrix,and the corresponding comment sets in the FMECA-fuzzy hierarchical analysis method were inversely calculated to obtain the cloud model digital eigenvalues,and the risk evaluation result cloud model of the reservoir dam was obtained by the fuzzy evaluation.The corresponding comment set cloud model digital eigenvalues were determined according to the constraints,and then the cloud model of the dam risk assessment results and the cloud model of each comment set were simulated by MATLAB to achieve the safety assessment of reservoir dams.The proposed method was applied to a dam in Yunnan Province and the internal safety assessment level of the dam was A,which was consistent with the evaluation results of the on-site expert group.It is proved that the safety analysis of reservoir dams based on cloud model-fuzzy FMECA method is feasible and scientific to a certain extent.