经济周期视角下的中国碳排放强度影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of China’s Carbon Emission Intensity from the Perspective of Economic Cycle

为了应对日益严峻的全球环境危机,中国提出了“双碳”目标。为了针对不同经济发展阶段有的放矢地制定节能减排政策以实现这个目标,划分不同的经济周期开展碳排放强度驱动因素的识别和评估研究。首先从经济、社会、能源三方面选取了8个可能影响碳排放强度的因素,然后利用两步法(MSAR-OPLS)进行实证分析。通过MSAR模型将中国1978—2019年划分为低速增长期、中速增长期、高速增长期3个经济周期,然后利用OPLS模型得到了中国不同经济周期内碳排放强度和各影响因素的回归模型,并据此分析了各影响因素在不同经济周期内的“碳效应”。在总结分析不同时期碳排放强度关键因素的基础之上,提出了降低碳排放强度的政策建议。

To cope with the increasingly severe global environmental crisis,China proposed the“dual-carbon”goal.To formulate energy-saving and emission-reduction policies targeted at different economic development stages to achieve this goal,the identification and evaluation of the driving factors of carbon emission intensity are carried out in different economic cycles.First,eight factors that may affect carbon emission intensity are selected from the three aspects of economy,society,and energy,and then the two-step(MSAR-OPLS)method is used for the empirical analysis.Through the MSAR model,China was divided into three economic cycles:Low-speed growth period,medium-speed growth period,and high-speed growth period from 1978 to 2019.Then,the OPLS model was used to obtain the regression model of carbon emission intensity and various influencing factors in different economic cycles in China.Based on this,the“carbon effect”of each influencing factor in different economic cycles is analyzed.Based on summarizing and analyzing the key factors of carbon emission intensity in different periods,policy recommendations for reducing carbon emission intensity are put forward.