数字经济、环境规制与可持续发展耦合协调度时空分异及影响因素研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination Degree of Digital Economy,Environmental Regulation,and Sustainable Development

数字经济和环境规制是可持续发展的重要驱动因素,探讨三者的耦合关系对促进区域经济、社会和环境协调发展具有重要意义。通过对2011—2020年我国30个省份的数字经济、环境规制与可持续发展水平进行测算,构建耦合协调度模型识别三者耦合协调发展的时空分异特征,并引入时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)探究耦合协调度的影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)数字经济、环境规制与可持续发展水平呈现波动增长趋势,其中环境规制综合水平最高;(2)三者耦合协调度存在时空差异,时间层面上全国耦合协调度位于中等和良好协调之间,总体呈现“W”型上升态势,空间层面上“链条式”和“组团式”特征明显,呈现“马太效应”;(3)耦合协调度存在显著的空间自相关性,局部上表现为“高—高”“低—低”集聚模式;(4)产业结构、政府能力和国际贸易是耦合协调度提升的主要因素,研发资金、人口压力成为抑制因素。

The digital economy and environmental regulation are important drivers of sustainable development,and it is important to explore the coupling relationship between them to promote the coordinated development of regional economy,society and environment.By measuring the levels of digital economy,environmental regulation and sustainable development in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,a coupling coordination model is constructed to identify the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the coupled and coordinated development of the three subsystems,and a spatial and temporal geographically weighted regression model(GTWR)is introduced to explore the influencing factors of the coupling coordination.The results of the study show that:(1)The levels of digital economy,environmental regulation and sustainable development show a fluctuating growth trend,with environmental regulation having the highest overall level.(2)There are spatial and temporal differences in the degree of coupling and coordination among the three subsystems,with the national coupling and coordination degree at the temporal level lying between moderate and good coordination,and showing an overall“W”shaped upward trend.At the spatial level,the“chain-shaped”and“cluster-type”are more obvious,showing the“Matthew effect”.(3)There is a significant spatial autocorrelation in the coupling coordination,which manifests a local pattern of“high-high”and“low-low”clustering.(4)Industrial structure,government capacity and international trade are the main factors for the improvement of coupling and coordination,while R&D funds and population pressure become inhibiting factors.