战略三角理论视角下中美俄大国关系论析

Analyzing the China-US-Russia Relationship from the Perspective of Strategic Triangle

冷战结束以来,美国始终不曾放弃瓦解中俄成为超级大国的潜力。随着中俄综合国力不断增强,美国从特朗普政府时期开始同步遏制中俄,国际体系步入新的大国竞争阶段。中美俄战略竞争引发了学界对美中苏大三角关系的联想。现有研究对中美俄关系的理解存在较大分歧,具体包括中美俄战略三角是否成立、中美俄关系属于哪种类型的战略三角以及中美俄战略三角的演变方向。通过运用战略三角理论分析现阶段的中美俄关系,文章尝试解答上述问题。第一,由于满足三国目标矛盾、相互依存、认知明确以及独立自主等战略三角成立的前提条件,现阶段的中美俄关系是典型的战略三角;第二,由于中俄在应对美国遏制上深化合作,中美俄关系属于“婚姻三角”;第三,中短期内中美俄“婚姻三角”会趋于稳固,长期来看这一“婚姻三角”存在四种转变方向,分别是僵化的“婚姻三角”、以中国为枢纽的“浪漫三角”、以俄罗斯为枢纽的“浪漫三角”以及中美俄相互对抗的“单位否决型三角”。对于中俄,理性的战略选择是推动中美俄战略三角转变为以本国为枢纽的“浪漫三角”。美国应理性反思在处理中美关系和俄美关系时的冷战思维,否则中美俄很可能陷入相互攻伐的“单位否决型三角”。机械重复历史经验只会错过解除当前国际危机的“窗口期”,三国需努力发掘能使竞争平稳过渡的开创性方案。

Since the end of the Cold War,the United States has never given up on eliminating the potential of China and Russia to become superpowers.It has begun to contain China and Russia simultaneously since the Trump administration,and the international system has been going through a new stage of great power competition.The strategic competition among China,the United States and Russia has triggered academic association of their interaction with the China-US-USSR strategic triangle.Existing research significantly differs in their understanding of China-US-Russia relations,including whether a China-US-Russia strategic triangle is established,what type of strategic triangle it belongs to,and the evolution direction of such a strategic triangle.Using the strategic triangle theory,the article attempts to answer the above-raised questions.First,because the prerequisites for the establishment of a strategic triangle are met,such as conflicting goals,interdependence,clear perception,and national independence,the current ChinaUS-Russia relationship is a typical strategic triangle.Second,because China and Russia have deepened their cooperation to deal with the US containment,the relationship among the three belongs to a"marriage triangle."Third,in the short to medium term,the"marriage triangle"will become stable.In the long term,there might be four possible directions for its transformation,namely,a rigid"marriage triangle",a"romantic triangle"with China as the hub,a"romantic triangle"with Russia as the hub,and a"unit veto triangle"of mutual confrontation.For China and Russia,a rational strategic choice is to promote the transformation of the strategic triangle into a romantic one with themselves as the hub.The United States should rationally reflect on its Cold War mentality when dealing with China and Russia.Otherwise,China,the United States and Russia are likely to fall into a"unit veto triangle"in which they attack each other.Repealing historical experience will only miss the"window period"to resolve the current international crisis.The three countries need to work hard to find innovative solutions that can smooth the transition of power competition.