“双碳”目标是否可以激励出口贸易的增长?——来自碳交易试点政策的准自然实验

Can the“Dual Carbon”Goal Stimulate the Growth of Export Trade?——A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Carbon Trading Pilot Policy

本文将碳交易试点政策作为准自然实验,利用2005-2019年31个省市的面板数据建立双重差分模型,系统考察了该政策对试点地区出口贸易的影响。同时,本文将绿色技术创新水平作为中介变量检验了碳交易试点政策对出口贸易的作用机制,并据此提出了相关政策启示。研究发现:第一,我国实施的碳交易试点政策能够显著促进试点地区出口贸易额的增长。第二,绿色技术创新在碳交易试点政策对出口贸易的影响中发挥了中介作用,实现了“创新补偿效应”。第三,碳交易试点政策对出口贸易的影响由于贸易方式、地区资源禀赋与市场化程度存在一定异质性,对于加工贸易方式、资源型地区、高市场化地区,试点政策对出口贸易的促进作用更为显著。

This paper takes the carbon trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and systematically investigates the impact of the policy on export trade in pilot areas by using the difference-in-differences model based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2005 to 2019.At the same time,taking the green technological innovation ability as an intermediary variable,this paper tests the mechanism of carbon trading pilot policy on export trade,and puts forward relevant policy implications.It is found that:Firstly,the carbon trading policy implemented in China can significantly promote the growth of export trade in the pilot areas.Secondly,green technology innovation plays an intermediary role in the impact of carbon trading pilot policy on export trade and realized the“innovation compensation effect”.Finally,the impact of carbon trading pilot policy on export trade is heterogeneous due to the trade mode,regional resource endowment and degree of Marketization.For processing trade,resource-based areas and high market-oriented areas,the pilot policy plays a more significant role in promoting export trade.