国际粮食价格波动对中国粮食安全的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of international grain price fluctuations on China’s food security

目前世界范围内粮食供求基本面相对脆弱,诸多粮食种类产需紧张,区域性结构性矛盾日益凸显,粮食价格一直相对偏高。此外,由于供需错配、区域性冲突、货币价格波动、能源价格变化等,致使国际粮食价格波动较大。近些年来,中国粮食供给稳定、库存丰盈,国际粮食价格变动对国内粮食安全影响程度相对较低,但大豆、食用植物油等对外依存度较高且市场化程度高的粮食往往会受到国际价格的影响,供应安全等易受影响。针对国际市场存在的不确定性与不稳定性,中国应从国内供应入手,着力提高粮食保供能力,全方位夯实粮食安全根基,同时防止国外的输入性风险,提升粮食市场的抗风险能力,扩大粮食领域的国际合作面,筑牢国家粮食安全防线。

At present,the fundamentals of food supply and demand are relatively fragile in the world,the produc‐tion and demand of many food types are tight,regional structural contradictions are increasingly prominent,and food prices have been relatively high.In addition,due to the mismatch of supply and demand,regional conflicts,currency price fluctuations,energy price changes,etc.,international food prices fluctuate significantly.In recent years,China’s food supply is stable and its stock is abundant.The impact of international food price fluctuations on domestic food security is relatively low.However,food with high external dependence and marketization,such as soybeans and edible vegetable oils,are often affected by international prices and are vulnerable to supply security.In view of the uncertainty and instability in the international market,China should start with domestic supply,strive to improve food supply capacity,comprehensively consolidate the foundation of food security,and prevent imported risks from abroad,improve the risk resilience of the food market,expand international coop‐eration in the field of food,and build a solid national defense line for food security.