预期信用损失模型实施与银行信贷过度增长

Implementation of Expected Credit Loss Model and Excessive Growth of Bank Credit

如何通过制定有效的贷款损失准备计提规则来影响银行信贷行为,进而促进经济高质量发展,是政策当局亟需解决的难题。鉴于此,本文利用贷款损失准备会计准则改革——2018年预期信用损失模型实施——作为准自然实验,运用渐进双重差分法,实证检验了预期信用损失模型是否及如何影响我国商业银行信贷过度增长。研究发现,预期信用损失模型可显著降低银行信贷过度增长,且这一结论在经过稳健性检验后仍然成立。从机制分析看,预期信用损失模型主要通过充分性效应和及时性效应两条路径作用于银行信贷过度增长。进一步的分析则表明,预期信用损失模型对于以权重法进行资本计量的银行和资本充足率较低的银行而言,其抑制信贷过度增长的作用更为突出。本文丰富了预期信用损失模型经济后果的有关研究,为会计准则制定与金融监管政策调整提供了有益的政策启示。

It is an urgent problem for policy authorities to formulate effective rules for drawing loan loss reserves to influence bank credit behavior and promote high-quality economic development.In view of this,the paper uses the reform of accounting standards for loan loss provision-the implementation of expected credit loss model in 2018-as a quasi-natural experiment,and studies whether and how the expected credit loss model affects the excessive credit growth of China commercial banks by using the progressive double difference method.It is found that the expected credit loss model will significantly reduce the excessive credit growth of banks,and this conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.From the mechanism analysis,the expected credit loss model mainly acts on the excessive growth of bank credit through two paths:adequacy effect and timeliness effect.At the same time,further analysis shows that the expected credit loss model has a more prominent inhibitory effect on excessive credit growth for non-state-owned banks,weighted capital measurement banks and banks with low capital adequacy ratio.This paper enriches the research on the economic consequences of the expected credit loss model,and provides useful policy enlightenment for the formulation of accounting standards and the adjustment of financial supervisionpolicies.