中国产业链风险敞口的测度、结构及国际比较——基于生产链长度视角

Measurement,Structure,and International Comparison of Risk Exposures in China's Industry Chains:APerspective Based on Production Chain Length

保障产业链安全运行一直是中国式现代化进程中的关注重点,也是提升中国产业链、供应链现代化水平的关键。然而,跟踪产业链风险的测度指标相对缺乏,且存在概念混淆。鉴于此,本文基于全球价值链生产长度视角,并结合国家间双边关系、不可替代程度等因素,提出了全球产业链风险敞口、风险收益比新概念和新测度方法,并进行了实证测算。研究发现:(1)总体上,不同方法测算得到的中国整体产业链需求端和供给端风险敞口都呈现出先上升后下降趋势,但不考虑国家间双边关系、生产环节的不可替代性等因素,或使用传统GVC参与度方法都会低估中国产业链风险敞口。(2)不同行业和不同技术水平产业的风险敞口存在显著差异,从大到小依次为制造业、服务业、农业,高技术制造业近1/3的生产长度暴露在国外,产业链受到外部冲击而断裂的风险较大。(3)中国产业链需求端风险敞口处于中游水平,高于美国,但低于世界其他发达国家;中国在世界贸易中所面临的风险大于收益,而世界其他国家在中国的收益大于风险。(4)各国家部门产业链风险敞口总体上具有一定监测预警作用,即某一国家部门风险敞口越大,在不利冲击下(如疫情)其贸易量下降的幅度可能就越大。

Ensuring the secure operation of industrial chains has been a focal point in the progress of Chinese modernization and a key aspect of enhancing the modernization level of its industrial and supply chains.However,there is a relative lack of measurement indicators for tracking industry chain risks,and conceptual confusion exists.Therefore,this paper proposes new concepts and indicators for global industry chain(GIC)risk exposures and risk-return ratios,based on the perspective of production chain length in global value chains(GVC),incorporating factors such as bilateral relationships between countries and the degree of non-substitutability,and conducts empirical calculations.The research findings are as follows:(1)Overall,the risk exposures of China's industry chain on the demand and supply sides,as measured by different methods,exhibit an initial upward trend followed by a downward trend.However,not considering factors such as bilateral relationships between countries and the non-substitutability of production stages,or using traditional measures of CVC participation,China's industry chain risk exposures will be underestimated.(2)There are significant variations in risk exposures across different industries and technological levels.Manufacturing,services,and agriculture industries have descending levels of risk exposures,with approximately one-third of the production length in high-tech manufacturing exposed to foreign markets,posing a higher risk of disruption due to external shocks.(3)China's risk exposure on the demand side of industry chains is at a medium level,higher than that of the United States but lower than other developed countries worldwide.China faces greater risks than returns in global trade,whereas other countries benefit more in their trade with China.(4)Overall,the risk exposures of industry chains in different sectors of countries serve as a monitoring and early warning mechanism.Specifically,the greater the risk exposure of a sector in a country,the larger the potential decline in trade volume under adverse shocks.