西方主流经济学理论离经济现实越来越近了吗?——以自然实验和可信性革命为例

Are Western Mainstream Economic Theories Getting Closer to Economic Reality?:Taking Natural Experiment and Credibility Revolution as an Example

长期以来,经济“混合物”现实与西方主流经济学“纯净物”思维之间存在着巨大的矛盾。为了克服这一矛盾,西方主流经济学研究者借鉴自然科学中的实验研究方法,在研究中广泛采用自然实验并推动了所谓可信性革命。从表面上来看,这使西方主流经济学取得了堪称经济学革命的长足发展,但是从更深层次来看,这次经济学革命不但未能有效缓和理论与现实之间的脱节问题,反而使其背离得更加严重,存在着自然实验不自然、可信性革命不可信、可操作性陷阱和外部有效性难题等根本缺陷。本文将本着批评和自我批评的态度,尝试从经济“混合物”现实和西方主流经济学“纯净物”思维的矛盾出发,深入分析自然实验和可信性革命所存在的缺陷,希冀能够进一步多元化经济学研究方法,植根中国实践,提炼中国经验,创新中国话语,为构建中国特色社会主义政治经济学添砖加瓦。

There is a long-existing logical gap between the economic"mixture"phenomenon and the economic"pure thing"thinking.In order to overcome it,western mainstream economists use the experimental methods in natural science for reference to promote the natural experiment and credibility revolution of economics.On the surface,it has made great progress in economics,and can be called the economic revolution.However,from a deeper level,this revolution in economics not only failed to effectively alleviate the deviation between economic theories and economic phenomena,but also made this deviation more serious including the unnatural natural experiment,the unreliable credibility revolution,operability traps and external effectiveness problems.Based on the attitude of criticism and self-criticism,this paper will try to deeply analyze the defects of natural experiment and credibility revolution from the contradiction of economic"mixture"phenomenon and economic"pure thing"thinking.It hopes to further diversify economic research methods,root in Chinese practice,extract Chinese experience,innovate Chinese discourse,and contribute to the construction of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics.