基于多目标决策优化的加氢站选址动态模型

A Dynamic Model for Hydrogen Refueling Station Siting Based on Multi-objective Decision Optimization

氢能是一种清洁无污染、能量高、用途广泛的二次能源,也是未来中国能源体系不可或缺的重要部分。氢能的开发和利用是全球能源技术革命的重要方向,加氢站作为氢能利用基础设施,是整个氢能产业链的关键,加快加氢站的建设对氢能的发展具有重要意义。结合氢能产业链基础和相关氢能政策,为加氢站的建设布局提供参考;综合分析出加氢站选址的重点考察因素,并利用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)层次分析法计算出每个因素的权重占比,得出了盈亏情况占比最大的结论;结合数学建模计算,建立了加氢站盈亏平衡的动态预测模型;通过对川渝地区5个加气/加油站点进行实地调研,得到了最优选址的盈亏平衡分析。以此研究为例,形成系统的加氢站布局选址的研究方法,为相关企业布局加氢站业务提供重要支撑和参考。

Hydrogen energy is a clean,non-polluting,high-energy,and widely used secondary energy source,which is an indispensable part of China’s future energy system.Its development and utilization is an important direction of the global energy technology revolution.As a hydrogen energy infrastructure facility,hydrogen refueling station is the key to the whole hydrogen energy industry chain,and accelerating the construction of hydrogen refueling station is of great significance to the development of hydrogen energy.Therefore,this paper firstly combines the hydrogen energy industry chain foundation and relevant hydrogen energy policies to provide reference for the construction layout of hydrogen refueling stations,then comprehensively analyzes the key examination factors for the location of hydrogen refueling stations,and calculates the weight share of each factor using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)hierarchical analysis,and arrives at the conclusion that the profit-and-loss situation accounts for the largest share of the total.It establishes a dynamic prediction model for the profit-and-loss balance of hydrogen refueling stations by combining the calculation of mathematical modeling,gets the breakeven analysis for the optimal site selection through the field research of five refueling/fueling station sites in the Sichuan-Chongqing area,and form a systematic research method of hydrogen station layout and site selection via taking this study as a case to provide important support and reference for relevant enterprises to layout hydrogen station business.