1990—2019年中国归因于高BMI的非传染性疾病死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析

Trends of non-communicable diseases mortality attribute to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019:age-period-cohort analysis

目的:分析1990至2019年中国归因于高身体质量指数(BMI)的非传染性疾病(NCDs)死亡率的长期趋势,为中国NCDs的管理提供科学依据。方法:从全球疾病负担数据库2019(GBD 2019)获取1990至2019年中国归因于高BMI的NCDs的死亡负担数据,使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估中国归因于高BMI的NCDs的年龄、时期、队列效应。结果:1990至2019年中国归因于高BMI的NCDs标化死亡率呈上升趋势,总人口从29.80/10万增至40.55/10万,其中男性从30.91/10万增至49.10/10万,女性从28.82/10万增至33.20/10万。年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示,年龄效应均呈现上升趋势;总人口、男性的时期效应和队列效应均呈现上升趋势,而女性呈现下降趋势。中国归因于高BMI的6种NCDs的死亡负担中,位于前3位的分别为血管疾病、肿瘤以及糖尿病和肾脏疾病。结论:1990—2019年,中国归因于高BMI的NCDs的死亡负担呈上升趋势,需重点加强50岁以上的男性人群干预,指导居民进行体重管理。

Objective:To analyze the secular trends of noncommunicable diseases(NCDs)mortality attribute to high body mass index(BMI)in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide scientific evidence for NCDs management in China.Methods:Data on the death burden of NCDs attribute to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease Database 2019(GBD 2019).Age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age,period and cohort on NCDs attribute to high BMI.Results:The standardized mortality rate of NCDs due to high BMI in China increased from 1990 to 2019,with the total population increased from 29.80/105 to 40.55/105,of which male increased from 30.91/105 to 49.10/105,and female increased from 28.82/105to 33.20/105.Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the age effect showed an increasing trend.The total population,males's period and cohort effects all showed an increasing trend,while a decreasing trend in females.The top three death burden of six NCDs attribute to high BMI in China were vascular disease,tumor,diabetes and kidney disease.Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019,the death burden of NCDs attribute to high BMI is on the rise in China.It is necessary to strengthen the intervention in men over 50 years old and guide the residents to carry out weight management.